\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 99 Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) )
Core content:
Since COFCO became the owner in 2015, the company’s operation has ushered in a decisive turning point, and the reform potential has been continuously amplified under the management empowerment. With the continuous enhancement of Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) brand influence and the continuous improvement of national channel network, the company took advantage of liquor consumption upgrading and fragrant flavor expansion to gradually open the ceiling of performance growth. In the next 2-3 years, we believe that the company will still be in a period of rapid growth, focusing on the increase brought by the expansion speed of market channels outside the province and the sinking and intensive cultivation of market in the province. In the long run, we believe that the company has the following advantages:
① COFCO became the host of the central enterprise endorsement, strengthened the brand height, and continued to enhance the soft power of the company through management empowerment. In 2015, COFCO took the lead in enabling management and opened a series of channel, product and governance reforms. In recent years, with the release of reform potential energy, the company’s performance has risen steadily, opening the road of rise. The company is expected to continue to develop under the support of COFCO and management line in the future.
② under the trend of diversified demand, Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) as a representative of fragrant fragrance, enjoys the dividend brought by the increase of penetration. With the rising demand for Baijiu liquor, the traditional minority flavor such as Fu Yu Xiang and so on will usher in the development opportunity. The implementation of the national standard of fragrance type in 2021 is not only the recognition of fragrance type technology and quality, but also the affirmation of the future development space and influence of fragrance type Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) since the 1990s, it has had the foundation of nationalization. In recent years, with the continuous empowerment of the company’s cultural marketing, the brand awareness has gradually increased across the country. In the future, with the improvement of the national market penetration of futulip, the company is expected to continue to enjoy the dividend of the rise of fragrance type and form a differentiated competitive advantage by virtue of fragrance type in secondary high-end events.
Third, the internal reference department will get the admission ticket of the scarce high-end Baijiu, and the future will be continuously expanded at the end of the high-end expansion. Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) has a high-end gene. It became popular in the 1980s and 1990s with the blessing of artist Huang Yongyu. In 2004, Huang Yongyu came out again to design a high-end new product for the company – internal reference, and open up a new category of fragrant tulips with high-end price. The company innovated the channel playing method, established the internal sales company, deeply bound the interests of manufacturers, successfully revitalized channels and helped the rapid rise of internal sales. From 2017 to 2020, the sales revenue CAGR of the participants reached 48%. In the future, as the internal brand of the brand continues to advance, the internal reference is expected to achieve a gradual volume of Baijiu by the channel and flavor advantages in the high-end price expansion trend.
④ with the gradual increase of the dynamic sales rate, the company has opened a large volume outside the province. With the continuous increase of the proportion of revenue in the market outside the province, the ceiling of the company’s performance growth has opened. Since 2016, Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) restarted nationalization, flexibly adopted platform business model, provincial agent business model and “manufacturer 1 + 1” model in channel expansion, adjusted measures to local conditions and made mistakes due to city, and promoted flexible layout at all levels. At present, the brand of internal participation drunkard has begun to take shape in markets such as Beijing Tianjin wing, Henan, Shandong and Guangdong. The proportion of revenue of internal participation drunkard market outside the province has increased year by year, and the layout of blank market is also advancing steadily. In the future, with the continuous promotion of the national channel network layout and the continuous improvement of the sales rate outside the province, the market outside the province is expected to continue to increase in volume and become a strong engine for the company to continuously break through the performance ceiling.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: it is estimated that the company will realize revenue of RMB 3.412 billion, 5.297 billion and 7.015 billion from 2021 to 2023, and net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 912 million, 1.563 billion and 2.181 billion, corresponding to EPS of RMB 281, 4.81 and 6.71/share, corresponding to PE (March 10, 2022) of 53.4x, 31.1x and 22.3x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: increased market competition, repeated epidemics, less than expected channel expansion and other risks.
