\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 99 Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) )
Events
On the evening of March 10, 2022, the company released the monthly data of 2022: the total revenue from January to February is expected to be about 1.4 billion yuan, an increase of about 120% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be about 465 million yuan, an increase of about 130% at the same time.
Key investment points
The monthly data exceeded expectations, and the first quarter basically made a good start
The total revenue of the company from January to February 2022 was about 1.4 billion yuan, an increase of about 120% at the same time, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was about 465 million yuan, an increase of about 130% at the same time.
The company has basically made a good start in the first quarter, which is mainly due to the company continuing to adhere to the strategy of strengthening the base market, creating a highland market and deepening nationalization, continuously strengthening the intensive cultivation of the base market, strengthening the brand guidance of the highland market, strengthening and optimizing circle marketing and the construction of core stores. We expect the drunkard series and internal reference to perform well in the first quarter.
Strengthen the base market and deepen the nationalization
The company adheres to the strategy of “strengthening the base, breaking through the highland and deepening nationalization”; Among them, the focus of base market building is to do depth, scale and dynamic marketing, and the focus of highland market is to do brand, value, flag and lead. Among them, Hunan, Henan, Hebei and Shandong are the base market, and Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang are the highland market.
The direction of deep nationalization is to gradually turn the outer market and the non key market in the middle into a base market, gradually turn the base market into a large-scale market, and gradually turn the highland market into a base market.
Internal parameters become the power engine, and the medium-term goal is imminent
After several years of operation and operation, the company has successfully gone out of the province, and the investment promotion layout outside the province continues. At present, the company’s advantageous regions are mainly in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong and Guangdong, and other regions need time to cultivate. East China is expected to become the company’s next granary. In the next 3-5 years, the company will take scale as an important assessment index, in which the internal reference will play the role of power engine, and will spare no effort to sprint for the short-term goal of 3 billion, medium-term goal of 5 billion and long-term goal of 10 billion, and the medium-term goal will be achieved soon. We expect that the product structure of the company in the future will be internal reference: drunkard series: Xiangquan = 4:5:1.
At present, the company’s management is stable, the company is the only liquor enterprise in COFCO Baijiu, and COFCO pays more attention to the company than before. Mr. Zheng Yi, deputy general manager of COFCO liquor in the early stage, served as the vice chairman, general manager and chief financial officer of the company, which is expected to promote the progress of equity incentive of the company.
Profit forecast
In the past five years since COFCO took over, the company has focused on the brand side (emphasizing the supreme product · cultural drunkard, and the positioning of the three brands is clear), the product side (the proportion of secondary high-end and above continues to increase, focusing on building three strategic products) The price side (combing the product price system and comprehensively introducing the price control mode) and the channel side (internal equity dealer mode and Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) clarifying the division of labor among manufacturers) will be reshaped to expand production capacity and ensure quality. The 14th five year plan company will go all out to achieve the goals of 3 billion in the short term, 5 billion in the medium term and 10 billion in the long term. We expect that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 2.82/4.62/6.35 yuan respectively, and the current share price corresponding to PE will be 57 / 35 / 25 times respectively, maintaining the “recommended” investment rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risks, the epidemic dragged down consumption, the growth of internal participation was less than expected, and the expansion outside the province was less than expected.
