In December 2021, the index fluctuated and strengthened, but the trend continued to differentiate, with individual stock plates rising more and falling less. The Shanghai stock index achieved three consecutive positive K-line in and ended smoothly in 2021. The Shanghai index rose in shock at the beginning of the month. In the middle of the month, the Shanghai index continued to strengthen in shock, once breaking through 3700 points, but then the shock callback. At the end of the month, the Shanghai index rose slightly and finally closed red; The gem index rose slightly at the beginning of the month, with a unilateral shock downward and a relatively sluggish performance. As of December 31, the monthly K line of Shanghai stock index rose by 2.13%, the monthly K line of Shenzhen Composite Index rose by 0.42%, and the monthly K line of gem index fell by 4.95%. Individual stocks rose more or fell less, with media, social services, building materials, public utilities and light industry manufacturing leading the gains, while power equipment, non-ferrous metals, automobiles, beauty care and national defense industry leading the declines.
Market Research and judgment in January 2022: start the spring market and actively layout. Judging from the market environment in January 2022, the external epidemic is disturbed and the global economy is under pressure. China’s economic stabilization policy has continued to exert force, and the prosperity level of the manufacturing industry has rebounded for two consecutive months. The follow-up macro policy will moderately exert force in advance to achieve stable economic growth. There is room for monetary policy and fiscal policy. In terms of capital, the credit peak at the beginning of the year and the continuous net inflow of northward funds superimposed the central bank’s expectation of increasing the release of liquidity before the Spring Festival, and the capital is generally stable and loose. From the technical point of view, the market fluctuated upward at the end of 2021, and the overall trend moderately warmed up. The central economic work conference deployed the work in 2022 and determined the general tone of macro policy of “taking the lead in stability and seeking progress in stability”. The conference made it clear that the policy should be properly advanced, and the management also set the focus of capital market reform in 2022. With the promotion of policies and the superposition of financial support, the market will continue to operate steadily. In the A-share investment strategy of Dongguan securities in the first half of 2022: consolidating the capital, cultivating the yuan and moving forward steadily, we clearly put forward that “driven by the marginal improvement of liquidity at the beginning of 2022, policy fine-tuning, policy expectation of the two sessions, incremental capital allocation demand brought by common prosperity and other factors, it is expected to change the sideways pattern, move forward steadily and usher in the trend of shock and rise”, From the current market trend, it is in line with our expectations. With the promotion of policies and the improvement of capital, it is expected that the market is expected to open the spring Market in January and usher in the pattern of shock and rise.
Active layout is recommended in operation. In terms of industry, it is recommended to pay attention to finance, building materials, food and beverage, household appliances, TMT, medicine, military industry, environmental protection, electrical equipment and other sectors.
Industry configuration: over allocation of finance, building materials, food and beverage, household appliances. Considering the market, fundamentals and other factors, we believe that in terms of industry allocation, it is recommended to over allocate in January: finance, building materials, food and beverage, household appliances, etc.
Risk tips: the overseas epidemic has intensified, the economic trend is less than expected, and the Sino US trade relations have deteriorated.
(Dongguan securities)
