Index tracking
[Shanghai and Shenzhen composite index] Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.39% to close at 3630.11 points; The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.83% to close at 14837.87 points; The gem index rose 1.05% to close at 3328.56.
[industry tracking] industry: 23 industries rose and 7 industries fell. Among them, household appliances, non-ferrous metals, power equipment and other sectors led the increase, with an increase of 2.73%, 2.50% and 2.10% respectively; Coal, public utilities, building decoration and other sectors led the decline, with a decline of – 3.17%, – 1.94% and – 0.94%.
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The home appliances sector led the gains. The large increase in the household appliance sector is related to the recent slowdown in real estate financing pressure and the central economic conference’s setting of “steady growth” next year. As the downstream of real estate, the household appliance sector is greatly affected by real estate policies. Since this year, due to the tightening of real estate policies, the decline of the household appliance sector has increased throughout the year. After October, The slowdown of real estate policy is expected to rebound the revenue and profits of the home appliance industry. From the perspective of valuation, the current valuation of the industry is at a historically low level and has certain valuation advantages. In the recent strategy report, we also mentioned that funds at the end of the year prefer the direction of reasonable valuation and small early increase, so the home appliance sector led the rise. In terms of individual stocks, Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) , Xiamen Comfort Science & Technology Group Co.Ltd(002614) limit, Bear Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002959) rose 6.54%.
The non-ferrous metal sector increased significantly, mainly led by the lithium resource sector. Since September, the lithium resource sector has continued to fall, but the price of lithium carbonate has continued to rise. As of December 26, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate has risen to 257500 yuan / ton. The rising price of lithium carbonate mainly comes from the strong demand side. At present, the development trend of global vehicle electrification is clear, and the new energy vehicle industry will maintain a high growth rate in the future; At the supply level, the development of salt lake resources is affected by the climate, the recent output is poor, coupled with the long development cycle of lithium resources, and the current supply side growth rate is limited. Therefore, the price of lithium carbonate continues to rise under the background of supply-demand mismatch. In terms of individual stocks, Tibet Summit Resources Co.Ltd(600338) , Shenzhen Sunrise New Energy Co.Ltd(002256) , Zangger mining and other stocks rose by the limit.
Outlook
At the end of the year, the policy documents of various departments are intensively released, and the hot spots in the market are mainly short-term speculation around the policy, which is relatively short-term. In the future, as we are about to enter January, there is a possibility of style switching in the market, and some subject plates with large increases have a short-term decline risk. From the historical data, the probability of outperforming the index in the direction of undervalued value in January is greater. It is suggested to pay attention to the direction with small early rise and historically low valuation such as banks, household appliances and petrochemicals.
Risk tips: the epidemic situation fluctuates beyond expectations and the safety of battery outbreak.
