Key investment points
The main line logic continues to strengthen, and the “winter agitation” moves forward in the market shock. Since the concept of “winter agitation” was first proposed in September, the valuation switch has laid the foundation for the “winter agitation” market. The three logics we put forward have been verified one by one and further strengthened. From the perspective of liquidity, the reduction of one-year LPR further released the signal of wide currency. Under the setting tone of the regular meeting of the central bank’s monetary policy committee in the fourth quarter, the expectation of another RRR reduction and comprehensive interest rate reduction in the first quarter continued to rise. From the perspective of corporate profits, the recent market structure has shifted from the valuation repair of traditional industries to the valuation switch of profit expectation improvement industries, and then to the valuation improvement of high boom tracks. This logic has been perfectly interpreted by the market. With the continuous narrowing of ppi-cpi scissors, the profits of enterprises in the middle and lower reaches will be further improved. From the perspective of risk appetite, with the gradual landing of external shocks such as the expected warming of overseas interest rate hikes and the re disturbance of the epidemic, the sustained force of fiscal and monetary policy under the tone of “stable growth” is expected to further promote the risk appetite of the market. “Winter agitation” market will return to normal after short-term disturbance.
Standing at the current time point, the “winter agitation” market is deducting towards the “cross year market”. Investors should not be too stuck to the so-called “market main line”, but should grasp the internal logic of promoting the market. Under the background of gradual switching of investors’ profit expectations, The main line of market structure will be gradually carried out in the order of valuation restoration of traditional industries (food and beverage, household appliances, finance, building materials and real estate) → valuation switching of industries with high elasticity of profit expectation (agriculture, textile, papermaking, chemical medicine and other essential consumer goods, information and energy infrastructure) → valuation improvement of high boom track (new energy vehicles, green electricity and military industry).
Focus on four investment clues:
1) Valuation switching superimposes changes in the market liquidity environment, and track leaders such as food and beverage, medicine and household appliances are expected to usher in the repair market;
2) With the continuous rise of commodity prices, the agricultural sector represented by planting and breeding industry, as well as the essential consumer goods with strong price transmission capacity such as textile and papermaking, are expected to usher in a boom rise;
3) Pay attention to the pull of China’s fiscal stimulus on new and old infrastructure sectors, especially energy infrastructure and information infrastructure in new infrastructure;
4) Layout the growth leader of the track to maintain high prosperity in the next two years, including new energy vehicle industry chain, green power and military industry.
