Key points:
The total revenue is rising, and the structure still needs to be optimized
In 2020, China will build a well-off society in an all-round way, its GDP will exceed one billion for the first time, and its income will continue to rise to a higher level. However, the two-level differentiation of income structure is serious. The per capita disposable income of 20% of the high-income group is ten times that of the low-income group; The proportion of urban property net income is much higher than that of rural cities and towns, which is 2.6 times of rural per capita income; The per capita disposable income in the East is 1.6 times that in the West. The continuous expansion of the income gap will lead to the decline of the overall marginal consumption propensity of Chinese residents, which will pose a severe test to China's economic growth. Improving the current situation of income gap and optimizing the income and wealth distribution mechanism will help to release the vitality of consumption and enhance the endogenous growth power of economy, so as to promote the steady development of China's international "double cycle" development pattern.
The income gap with developed countries is still large, but the gap is narrowing
Compared with developed countries, China's total economic output is higher, but because of its large population base, there is still a significant gap in per capita income between China and developed countries. At the same time, China's Gini coefficient is at a high level all over the world. In 2019, the per capita GNI of the United States is 7.6 times that of China, and there is still a large gap. But vertically, the income ratio gap between China and the United States has narrowed. The per capita GNI ratio between China and the United States was as high as 28 in 2000. After 2013, it has dropped below 10 and has been shrinking.
The epidemic has promoted the wealth accumulation of the rich and widened the gap between the rich and the poor
After the epidemic, it showed a "K-type recovery" trend. In 2020, due to the over issuance of currencies in various countries, the global stock market and real estate rose sharply, the total global household wealth increased by 7.4% year-on-year, and the per capita wealth of global adults reached a record high. Among them, in 2020, there were more than 56 million millionaires (in US dollars). Instead, the epidemic has promoted the accumulation of wealth among the rich. While the wealth of the rich is growing, the number of people living in extreme poverty in the world is increasing sharply. The epidemic has plunged 88 million to 114 million people into extreme poverty. In 2020, the number of high net worth people in China jumped to 2.62 million, and the per capita investment assets of high net worth were 32.09 million yuan, much higher than the level before the epidemic.
Facing the test of whether we can cross the middle-income trap, we need to find a new income growth model
According to China's current per capita GNI level, it is in the middle-income stage. At present, China's birth rate is declining, the aging population is becoming more and more serious, the epidemic situation is uncertain, and green and low-carbon development has become the theme of the world. It is facing a series of complex external environments in China, and it is urgent to find a new income growth model. At this stage, we are exploring a development path that conforms to the times and is suitable for our own country: expanding domestic demand and realizing China's foreign dual cycle development; Promote common prosperity and correctly handle the relationship between efficiency and fairness; Real estate tax pilot; Develop new infrastructure and promote high-quality development.
Risk statement
The epidemic worsened more than expected, and China's foreign policy exceeded expectations.
