The penetration of new energy vehicles has accelerated, and the demand for chips has increased significantly
According to the statistics of China Automobile Industry Association, from January to November 2021, the output and sales of new energy vehicles were 3.023 million and 2.99 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7 times. In November 2021, the monthly sales volume of new energy vehicles was 450000, and the market penetration rate was 17.8%, which continued to rise month on month compared with October. At the same time, the Automobile Association of China estimates that the total sales volume of China’s automobile in 2022 will be 27.5 million, the sales volume of new energy vehicles will be 5 million, and the penetration rate will be 18.2%. The rapid development of the new energy vehicle industry has led to a significant increase in the demand for automotive chips, while the lack of supporting capacity on the supply side has led to a shortage of chips. According to the relevant data of jimicrogrid, at present, the consumption of semiconductor chips in traditional internal combustion engine vehicles is about 600 ~ 700 pieces / vehicle, while that of new energy vehicles is as high as 1600 pieces / vehicle. The development trend of automobile electrification, intelligence and networking is irreversible, and the chip supply chain may start to change.
The compound growth rate of vehicle gauge semiconductor industry exceeds 16%, and the speed of domestic substitution is increased
Automotive chips are mainly divided into 8 categories: high performance computing chips (AI chips, etc.), microcontrollers (MCU), memory chips (DRAM / Flash), image sensors (CIS), display driver chips, analog chips, power devices and sensor chips. According to relevant Gartner data, the global automotive semiconductor market will grow from US $38.7 billion to US $82.6 billion in 2020, with a compound industry growth of 16.4%. In terms of electrification, Chinese manufacturers have achieved a rapid breakthrough in the field of vehicle specification IGBT with the advantages of high performance and delivery capacity, while the third-generation compound semiconductor SiC series products are also actively arranged to continuously shorten the gap with international manufacturers. In terms of intelligence, intelligent driving has become the general trend, which is expected to drive the demand in many fields such as sensing, computing, storage, screen and connection. In terms of sensing, the core sensing component is the eye of automatic driving. With the upgrading of intelligent driving from L1 to L2 / L3, the number of cameras has increased from about 5 to 8 ~ 13, and the number of on-board cameras has increased significantly. At the same time, the on-board CIS has also been gradually upgraded from VGA → 1m → 2m → 8m. The increase in volume and price has led to the increase of the market scale of on-board CIS; In terms of calculation, MCU chip is the core of internal calculation and processing of automotive electronic system and the key to the in-depth development of automobile from electrification to intelligence, covering body control, power control, automobile safety and BMS control system. At present, domestic MCU manufacturers are still in the initial stage in the field of vehicle regulation and industrial control, We believe that China’s first-line MCU manufacturers are expected to gradually break through from simple functions to safety control through cooperation with terminal vehicle enterprises, so as to meet the requirements of reliability, stability and consistency.
Investment suggestions:
[beneficial object]
[vehicle gauge semiconductor] Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) , Sg Micro Corp(300661) , Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) , Ingenic Semiconductor Co.Ltd(300223) , Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) , Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) , Byd Company Limited(002594) semiconductors (to be listed), etc.
Risk statement
The progress of vehicle specification products is lower than expected, and the verification of Chinese manufacturers is lower than expected.
