event
On December 30, according to the message of jiwei.com, “the MLCC price stabilized in the fourth quarter, and the channel end inventory has returned to the normal level. It is expected that the Q1 price will improve next year, the demand will be differentiated in the first half of the year, and the vehicle regulation level application will be vigorous”. According to passive device industry information “Due to the obvious increase of production costs due to the fluctuation of electricity price, coupled with the shortage of labor force and the general sharp increase of international freight in 2022, all kinds of passive devices have to follow up and increase. Due to the sharp increase of cost, the factory has no choice but to adjust the price even when the demand is not too strong. It is different from the usual price increase mode of sending an official letter to the whole series of general increases, due to the current market boom Many manufacturers will choose to communicate one by one according to specifications and customers. At present, the known categories of price rising passive devices include but are not limited to electrolytic capacitors, thin film capacitors, tantalum capacitors, inductive transformers, etc. It is expected that the prices of many passive components will rise slightly in the first and second quarters of 2022; After the recovery of market demand, there will be medium to high price increases. ”
comment
Looking back at 2021, the passive component market is high before and low after. 1) Since Q4 in 2020, affected by the epidemic, the delivery time of overseas passive component enterprises has been prolonged, coupled with the strong demand of downstream consumer electronics (the epidemic has brought high demand for laptop and tablet due to home office, and apple, Samsung and OVM actively prepared goods after Huawei was sanctioned, hoping to seize the share of Huawei’s exit), and the price of passive components has increased sharply. Start the price rise tide in early 2021. In March, Guoju and huaxinke increased the resistance price, and in April, Guoju, Samsung and huaxinke increased the MLCC price. The industry boom continued to rise. 2) Affected by the lack of core, the passive components are trapped in the problem of long and short materials, and the demand for laptops, tablets and mobile phones is weak. In September, Guoju reduced the resistance price, and the price of passive components fell sharply.
Looking forward to 2022, the demand differentiation and the vigorous development of new energy will drive the high demand for thin film capacitors. 1) At present, the price of passive components industry has stabilized, but it is still in the de inventory stage. It is necessary to grasp the strong demand industry – new energy industry. 2) Automotive electrification has greatly increased the demand for passive components. The demand for passive components of traditional fuel vehicles is 6000 ~ 8000, that of hybrid motor vehicles is 10000, and that of electric vehicles is 14000. It is expected that in the future, with the rapid growth of new energy vehicle market, the demand for passive components will increase rapidly. Different from the trend of miniaturization of components pursued by communication terminal equipment, the automotive field requires passive components to be able to adapt to harsh environments such as high temperature, vibration and impact. Therefore, capacitors with poor environmental tolerance such as thin-film capacitors benefit from the trend of automotive electrification and are widely used in electric vehicle powertrain, charging system and DC-DC conversion circuit. 3) Similar to the field of electric vehicles, the construction of photovoltaic, wind power and other new energy industries needs to apply a large number of power converters to output AC current and voltage with specific frequency and vibration, and then transmit them to transmission and distribution lines. Therefore, DC intermediate circuit needs a large number of passive components to achieve accurate current and voltage control, film capacitors and other high-capacity, high-voltage High reliability passive component products will benefit from the development of new energy industry. 3) In 2020, the application proportion of thin-film capacitors in global power capacitors will reach 50%, and the global market scale of thin-film capacitors will be about US $2.2 billion. It is expected that the demand for thin-film capacitors will grow rapidly in the future due to the vigorous development of new energy industry.
Investment advice
The price of passive components stabilizes. It is recommended to pay attention to the industry leaders Chaozhou Three-Circle(Group) Co.Ltd(300408) , Shenzhen Sunlord Electronics Co.Ltd(002138) .
The vigorous development of new energy has driven the high demand for thin film capacitors. It is suggested to pay attention to the industry leader Xiamen Faratronic Co.Ltd(600563) . At present, it is Nantong Jianghai Capacitor Co.Ltd(002484) in the market expansion stage and Hunan Aihua Group Co.Ltd(603989) in the market introduction stage.
Risk statement
The price of passive components continued to decline, and the development of new energy was less than expected.
