Where is the machinery industry in the renewal cycle in 2022? In the past 10 years, the profit statement and balance sheet of the machinery industry have reflected a relatively complete U-shaped cycle, namely “ten-year renewal cycle”. 2011 is the left side of the renewal cycle, and 2017 is the first year on the right side of the bottom of this cycle. The prosperity of many subdivided circuits in the machinery industry in 2022 can be deduced according to the “ten-year” renewal cycle law. We should devote more energy to finding the track in the upward phase of the cycle. For example, under the “3060” goal, the energy conversion devices (boilers, compressors, steam turbines) will usher in a new year; For the track with periodic top or down, try to explore the advantages of high-quality companies α Logic.
In 2022, we will vigorously layout the “double carbon” industry, taking into account the upstream, middle and downstream. 1) Upstream: as a low-carbon and clean energy, natural gas has a long boom demand in the next 5-10 years, and is expected to usher in a round of upward capital expenditure in the world. Photovoltaic and wind power industry chain is still a hot track, and perovskite has great market potential. 2) Midstream: the flexibility transformation of thermal power units is imperative; Energy saving, consumption reduction, transformation and upgrading in the field of industrial production, and optimistic about energy conversion equipment (waste heat boiler, compressor, energy-saving motor, etc.); The consumer side continues to be optimistic about electric vehicle related fields, including lithium battery equipment and related core parts. 3) Downstream: carbon negative emission and carbon capture technology (CCS).
The high-end manufacturing industry realizes import substitution and going abroad, and attaches importance to the rise of core parts. Since the reform and opening up, China’s manufacturing industry has experienced a trilogy of “three supplies and one compensation, import substitution and going abroad”, showing a trend of continuous improvement in the localization rate of “complete equipment – core parts – basic materials”. The import substitution and going abroad of the machinery industry are expected to accelerate after 2022. The main reasons are as follows: 1) the engineer bonus brought by the change of population and education structure; 2) Sino US trade friction forced the industry to “make up for weaknesses”; 3) Covid-19 epidemic accelerated the import substitution trend of high-end manufacturing industry. In the past 10 years, a number of leading companies have been born in the whole machine equipment track; In the next 5-10 years, the wave of localization of core parts will give birth to a large number of subdivided faucets (GPU, flat panel detector, self-lubricating bearing, sensor, etc.).
The bulk price increase in 2022 may have passed, and pay attention to the track with improved gross profit margin. “Light materials, heavy industry” industries are basically not affected by bulk price increases, such as 3C equipment, laser equipment, dental equipment and other industries. Steel accounts for a relatively high proportion in the cost structure of the “material heavy industry light” industry, but some fields can be hedged by product price increases, so the decline of gross profit margin is limited, such as machine tools, injection molding machines, natural gas equipment, etc; However, the gross profit margin in some areas is still greatly damaged. It is expected that commodity prices will fall back to the normal level in 2022. It is suggested to pay attention to the track where the gross profit margin is expected to improve, such as construction machinery, boiler equipment and other fields.
Maintain the “overweight” rating of the mechanical equipment industry. In 2022, we need to deeply perceive the changes in the cycle of each subdivided track in the machinery industry, especially recommend dual carbon industry, 3C equipment and core parts, and be optimistic about photovoltaic equipment and perovskite industry chain, natural gas equipment, laser equipment, lithium battery equipment, oral digital equipment, etc.
Risk tip: the recovery progress of manufacturing industry is lower than expected; Overseas epidemic control progress is lower than expected; Investment in real estate and infrastructure is less than expected; Uncertainty risk of national industrial policy; The performance of relevant recommended targets does not meet the expected risk, etc.
