event
On December 30, the latest quotation of silicon wafers was announced on the central official website, which was further lower than that on December 2. The silicon wafers of 182mm and above decreased by 6-8%, which was greater than that of small-size silicon wafers.
Key investment points
Rapid progress has been made in reducing cost and increasing efficiency, and the advantages of large size and flake are prominent
According to the latest quotation of central, the price of 158.75/166/182/210/218.2 (160mm) silicon wafer is 5.15/5.05/6.21/8.55 yuan / wafer respectively, a decrease of 0.99/1.01/6.40/7.78/7.87% compared with that at the beginning of December. At the same time, the company also cancelled 170 μ M and 165 μ M silicon wafer quotation, changed to publish only 160 μ M and 150 μ m。 It can be seen that in this round of price reduction, the price reduction of large sizes of 182 and above is greater, and the supply accelerates the switch to large-size thin silicon wafers,
After the completion of unloading, the silicon wafer stop rebounded, and the operating rate rebounded in January
At present, the de stocking of silicon wafer factory is basically completed. Although the quotation of silicon wafer in central is lower than that at the beginning of the month, the actual price of pvinfolmk has rebounded slightly compared with that last week. Under the background of de stocking, decline of silicon material price and accelerated release of demand, the operating rate of silicon wafer manufacturers will increase month on month
The release of terminal installed capacity is accelerated, and the industry ushers in a demand inflection point
The high price of raw materials in 21 years has restrained the demand of downstream terminals. After the price reduction of silicon materials next year, the installed demand is expected to accelerate the release, and the industry ushers in a demand inflection point. We expect that the global installed capacity will be 22ogw + in 22 years.
Investment advice: the inflection point is now, embrace growth
With the accelerated release of terminal installation, the industry has ushered in a demand inflection point. It is suggested to pay attention to the following main lines: 1) with new technical support Battery module integration leader with strong certainty of profit recovery [ Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) ] [ Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) ]: 2) supply silicon nitou with fast and large volume at the bottleneck of the industrial chain [ Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) ]: 3) photovoltaic energy storage dual wheel drive [ Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) ]: 4) adhesive film nitou enterprise with good pattern and strong certainty of long-term growth [ Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) ] [ Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) ]: 5) high-quality leaders in other links [ Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) ] [ Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) ].
Wind removal prompt
The installed capacity is less than expected, the price of the industrial chain fluctuates sharply, and the progress of new technology is less than expected.
