Market review: from January 1 to December 20, 2021, Shenwan mechanical equipment index rose 13.46%, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 6.35%, Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.47% and gem rose 16.67%. In the same period, the mechanical equipment index ranked ninth in the 28 industries. Among the sub industries, machine tools and refrigeration and air conditioning equipment led the increase, rising by 60.79% and 49.36% respectively.
Investment suggestion: in 2022, it is suggested to grasp the investment opportunities of mechanical equipment industry with two main lines. Main line 1: new energy equipment track benefiting from the general trend of double carbon emission reduction. Specifically, it includes photovoltaic equipment with open terminal demand and obvious technological changes in subdivided links and lithium battery equipment benefiting from intensive production by power battery manufacturers. Main line 2: under the current situation that key areas are frequently stuck, segments with domestic substitution ability are more favored. It is suggested to pay attention to the NC tool industry that benefits from domestic substitution and strong downstream demand.
Photovoltaic equipment: the high prosperity continues, and technological change brings investment opportunities in various segments. At present, the global renewable energy is showing a strong development momentum, and the overall photovoltaic industry chain is developing rapidly. From the equipment side, the renewal demand and derivative demand brought by technology iteration are a major focus in the future. Specifically, in terms of various industrial chain links, 1) silicon wafer end: benefiting from the trend of large-scale and flake, there is a need to update the equipment. It is recommended to pay attention to the leading Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) (300316. SZ) of monocrystalline silicon growth furnace; 2) Battery cell end: benefiting from the equipment update demand brought by hjt technology iteration, focus on Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) (300751. SZ) with the supply capacity of hjt whole line equipment; 3) Component side: benefiting from the equipment update opportunities brought by component technology upgrading, focus on the component equipment leader Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) (688516. SH).
Lithium battery equipment: under the new round of expansion cycle, lithium battery equipment has ushered in strong demand. With the continuous improvement of global requirements for environmental protection, electric vehicles are being respected all over the world, which also promotes the trend of vehicle electrification. The vigorous development of downstream electric vehicles has brought strong demand for power batteries, which has led to intensive production expansion of power battery manufacturers, which has significantly benefited equipment manufacturers. We believe that the equipment leader bound to the core industrial chain will rely on the advantages of product layout, technology and customers. Throughout the industry, the equipment leader Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) (300450. SZ) covered by the whole process is the first. Secondly, it is recommended to pay attention to the equipment leader Zhejiang Hangke Technology Incorporated Company(688006) (688006. SH) in the rear section with high gross profit margin and Guangdong Lyric Robot Automation Co.Ltd(688499) (688499. SH) for double repair of power consumption.
CNC cutting tools: the high prosperity of manufacturing industry is superimposed on import substitution, and the high prosperity of cutting tool industry can be expected throughout the year. In the short term, benefiting from the recovery of the global manufacturing industry, the prosperity of the tool market will continue. In the medium and long term, under the background of upgrading the manufacturing industry, with the increase of the proportion of NC of high-end machine tools, the proportion of tool consumption, the penetration rate of cemented carbide tools and the proportion of import substitution in the Chinese market, the tool industry will usher in a golden period of development. It is suggested to pay attention to the leaders of NC tools Oke Precision Cutting Tools Co.Ltd(688308) (688308. SH), China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co.Ltd(000657) (000657. SZ), Zhuzhou Huarui Precision Cutting Tools.Co.Ltd(688059) (688059. SH).
Risk tip: the installed capacity of photovoltaic is less than expected, the iteration of new photovoltaic technology is less than expected, the production expansion of power battery manufacturers is less than expected, the manufacturing landscape is declining, and the global epidemic spread leads to the slowdown of economic recovery.
