Looking back on 2021: the Supervision issued a series of policies in many fields such as antitrust, network data security, games and entertainment, and the overall performance of the media industry was under pressure. With the policy boundary becoming clearer and the industry operation becoming more standardized, the advantages of head enterprises are expected to be further strengthened. In addition, 5g, VR / AR and other new technologies are constantly maturing, and there are broad investment opportunities under the main line of meta universe, which helps further repair the valuation of the media industry.
Yuancosmos: it is expected to open a new cycle of the Internet industry. Metauniverse is a polymer of advanced technology and new scene applications, which is inseparable from the underlying technical support such as 5g, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, VR / AR, digital twins and blockchain. On the technical side, 5g penetration is gradually increasing and VR / AR technology is becoming mature; On the hardware side, the global VR / AR shipment is expected to exceed 10 million units next year; On the content side, the game is expected to become the first landing scene. At the same time, digital virtual human and NFT digital asset confirmation continue to enrich the scene forms. From the perspective of investment, the underlying infrastructure and hardware equipment are expected to benefit first. The software application end will usher in explosive demand growth with the technological progress of hardware. Global technology giants, engine tool platforms and content companies have been laid out one after another. The business model and performance of yuancosmos have yet to be verified, and attention must be paid to investment risks.
Game: in terms of policy, the goal of anti addiction has been preliminarily achieved, and the regulatory pressure has been basically released. In terms of industry, the proportion of China’s mobile travel revenue to the sea continues to increase, and the long-term sea travel is expected to become the second growth point. In terms of valuation, PE (TTM) was corrected from 40 times to 20 times in the first half of the year under the elimination of epidemic dividend and anti addiction rectification; In the second half of the year, driven by the launch of new products, the maturity of VR / AR technology and the concept of meta universe, it is estimated that it is worth repairing. With the restart of subsequent game version numbers, the continuous recovery of performance driven by new products and the continuous development of yuanuniverse investment theme, the game sector is expected to usher in a new era.
Video: in terms of policy, this round of rectification is mainly aimed at non-standard behaviors such as high-quality content, traffic and artists, advanced on-demand and so on. The status of long-term star artists in the industrial chain is expected to be reduced, and the cost reduction is good for the platform side and the content side; Advance on-demand is cancelled, but the price increase of members is implemented, which is expected to contribute positive income in the short term. The platform should pay more attention to improving the service efficiency of members and the ability to continuously output high-quality content. At the cinema end, the local epidemic situation repeatedly led to the national market recovery less than expected; With the advent of key schedules at the end of the year, the supply of excellent content increases, and the film market is expected to be repaired.
Investment suggestion: it is suggested to grasp the main line of metauniverse technology and focus on investment opportunities such as games and videos. Companies and platforms that promote the enrichment of meta universe application scenarios: Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) , Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) , G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) , Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) , Beijing Enlight Media Co.Ltd(300251) ; Leading cinema companies with increased content supply and short-term recovery are expected, such as Wanda Film Holding Co.Ltd(002739) . Maintain the rating of “synchronous market” in the industry.
Risk tips: changes in policy and supervision; Intensified market competition; The product and performance are not as good as expected.
