Shortly after the introduction of 18 articles on the property market in Zhengzhou on March 1, the news of loose property market policies came from Ningbo.
First, on March 1, a number of large real estate intermediaries in Ningbo received the latest notice on the reduction of mortgage interest rates from the four major banks of “industrial and agricultural construction”. Then came the news of “recognizing loans but not houses” from the market.
To this end, the reporter of “daily economic news” called Ningbo real estate market management center, and its staff said that “we should consult the bank for details”. The local Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited(601398) staff in Ningbo replied to the reporter that “there are two suites under their name that can still be loaned after the loan is settled”. The staff of BOCOM said that “if there are more than two houses under their name, the third one can’t be loaned”. The customer service staff of China Construction Bank Corporation(601939) and China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) said that they “don’t know the policy”.
In fact, since last year, Ningbo has successively issued policies to expand the purchase restriction circle, formulate the transaction reference price of second-hand houses, and include French auction houses into the scope of purchase restriction, resulting in a continuous decline in the transaction of the real estate market.
After the reduction of mortgage interest rate, has the transaction in Ningbo property market improved? What is the impact of the policy of “recognizing loans but not houses” on the property market in Ningbo? What is the real purchase intention of property buyers in Ningbo? Can Ningbo real estate market, with continuous decline in trading volume, usher in the “little spring” market? In this regard, the reporter of the daily economic news conducted an investigation and interview.
Four major banks cut mortgage interest rates
As the first city in China to fully relax purchase and loan restrictions, after the introduction of Zhengzhou policy on March 1, insiders predicted that “other cities may follow up”.
On the same day that Zhengzhou released Article 18 of the property market, according to Ningbo evening news, on March 1, many large real estate intermediaries in Ningbo have received the latest notice on the adjustment of mortgage interest rate from the four major banks of “industrial and agricultural construction”. The four banks have determined to uniformly reduce the “plus point” level of mortgage interest rate from February 28, and the “plus point” of the first and second houses have been reduced by 5bp, The new year’s interest rate fell to 5.35% and 5.6% respectively.
At the same time, market news said that many banks in Ningbo began to implement the policy of “recognizing loans but not houses”. According to the report of China real estate news on March 8, many banks in Ningbo said that “the housing loan policy has been relaxed and loans can also be made for the purchase of a third house outside the purchase restriction area of Ningbo”.
Specifically, the content of this online policy of “recognizing loans but not houses”. In six districts of Ningbo, if there are no house buyers, no mortgage balance, no mortgage record, no mortgage balance and no mortgage record, the first down payment ratio of 30% and the first mortgage interest rate shall be implemented; If there is a balance of housing loans, 40% of the down payment ratio of the second set and the interest rate of the second set of housing loans shall be implemented.
Buyers who have one house in six districts of Ningbo, and those who have no mortgage balance and no mortgage record, shall be subject to the down payment ratio of 30% of the first house and the interest rate of the first house loan; Those who have no mortgage balance and have mortgage records shall be subject to the down payment ratio of 40% for the second set and the interest rate of the first set of mortgage; For buyers with mortgage balance, the minimum down payment ratio is 60%, which shall be implemented according to the second house loan interest rate.
For those who have 2 or more houses in six districts of Ningbo, and those who have no mortgage balance and no mortgage record, the first down payment ratio and the first mortgage interest rate shall be implemented; For buyers without mortgage balance and with mortgage records, the down payment ratio of 40% and the interest rate of the first mortgage shall be implemented; For one outstanding purchase, the down payment ratio of 60% and the second house loan interest rate shall be implemented.
online transmission of Ningbo’s policy of “recognizing loans but not houses”
However, there is no consensus on the news of “recognizing the real estate market”.
The daily economic news reporter got the news from the local real estate agency in Ningbo that the loan policy has been relaxed and the amount is abundant. “Cixi, Yuyao, Hangzhou Bay, some areas of Fenghua, Xiangshan, Ninghai, etc. These are ‘recognizing loans but not houses’, and other areas are’ recognizing houses and loans’.”
Subsequently, the reporter consulted several banks in Ningbo, including Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited(601398) , China Construction Bank Corporation(601939) , Bank Of Communications Co.Ltd(601328) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , China Minsheng Banking Corp.Ltd(600016) and Yongcheng rural commercial bank.
China Minsheng Banking Corp.Ltd(600016) account manager told reporters that at present, the loan for the third house in Ningbo is suspended. Generally, some banks in Ningbo are able to start lending, and other banks will follow up, but their banks have not received the latest notice. The customer manager of Yongcheng rural commercial bank said that now they have no mortgage amount and do not handle mortgage.
Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited(601398) staff replied to the reporter that there are two suites under their name that can be loaned after the loan is settled; If it is not settled, no loan can be made inside or outside the purchase restriction area. Bank of communications staff said that if there are more than two houses under their name, the third one can not make loans. No matter whether the loan records are settled or not, and whether they are in or outside the purchase restricted area of Ningbo, they can no longer apply for loans The customer service personnel of China Construction Bank Corporation(601939) and China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) said they were not clear about the policy.
In addition, the reporter also called Ningbo real estate market management center, and its staff replied that they should consult the bank for details, subject to the bank’s information, because the bank is in actual operation.
For the current specific purchase and loan restriction policy and whether it will issue a document for adjustment in the future, the staff of the above-mentioned Ningbo real estate market management center said that it is suggested that if buyers want to buy a house in a district or county, they can consult the relevant district or county, or print the purchase restriction certificate first, which is the safest. The certificate is valid for one month.
House purchase expectation or recovery
In fact, since the first half of last year, Ningbo property market has followed the National hot cities to tighten regulation. On April 16, 2021, Ningbo issued the notice on Further Strengthening the regulation of the real estate market and promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, including the requirements of expanding the purchase restriction area and strictly examining the source of down payment for house purchase.
On May 11, 2021, Ningbo Municipal Bureau of housing and urban rural development announced that it had established a mechanism for publishing the reference prices of second-hand housing transactions in hot school districts, promoted the transparent and rational trading of second-hand housing market information, and first released the reference prices of second-hand housing transactions in 112 districts within the scope of 9 hot school districts, Make it clear that commercial banks and other financial institutions take the reference price of second-hand housing transactions in hot school districts as one of the bases for credit granting.
From January 1, 2022, the French auction house officially entered the purchase restriction circle. Bidders must have the purchase qualification, and the fictitious purchase qualification must bear the responsibility; Must be continuously qualified to purchase a house; After the auction, unqualified people cannot pay their debts with their houses.
Over the past year, Ningbo, like the national property market policy, has experienced changes from tightening to local easing, and the market transactions have also followed the policy fluctuations.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of E-House Research Institute, analyzed to the reporter of daily economic news that the policy relaxation in Ningbo is also in line with expectations. Over the past two years, Ningbo’s real estate policy has continued to increase, with strict control, which has objectively cooled the real estate market. The current contradiction is that the downward pressure on the real estate market is increasing. From the perspective of stabilizing the real estate market, it really needs to be adjusted.
data source: anjuke
Zhao Yue is a young man who returned to Ningbo from Shanghai to work. After returning to Ningbo for some time, he learned that his colleagues, whether married or single, have their own house, so he also has a strong plan to buy a house.
“I used to rent houses in Shanghai, but I didn’t know much about real estate transactions. Recently, I’ve been studying buying houses every day, and I haven’t had any thoughts.” Zhao Yue told reporters that he planned to buy a new house. As I have just worked for a few years, I don’t have much budget, and I have my own car, I can also consider buying houses in distant areas outside the restricted area.
Recently, many cities across the country have released loose regulation and loose policies, and Ningbo’s financial policies have also been relaxed. Recently, real estate agents often urge Zhao Yue to make a decision as soon as possible, and said that some real estate enterprises have reduced or even cancelled the recovery of intermediary commission.
A person familiar with the real estate market in Ningbo told reporters that although the trading volume of new houses in Ningbo had dropped after the increase of policies, the average transaction price was relatively strong or even slightly increased. At present, some real estate projects also have preferential activities. It is expected that the transaction price may rise when the demand side is expected to relax.
“In recent years, some Wenling friends around me are also optimistic about the future development of Ningbo. The house price of 20000 or 30000 has a good cost performance compared with other cities, so I chose to buy a house and settle in Ningbo.” Wang Bo, a citizen of Ningbo, told reporters that in his observation, as a new first tier city closest to Taizhou, many Taizhou people come to Ningbo to work and live, buy houses and settle down. On the contrary, when the house price and transaction in Ningbo fell in the second half of last year, friends who had replaced large houses shelved the plan, but they began to see the house again after the Spring Festival.
Property market transactions “high open low go”
Since April last year, Ningbo has expanded the purchase restriction area, released the transaction reference price of second-hand houses and other large-scale tightening control policies, the second-hand houses of new houses in Ningbo have opened a downward path and continued to fluctuate at a low level for many months.
The reporter of “daily economic news” inquired about relevant information and learned that the trading volume of new houses in Ningbo is more than 10000 sets per month compared with the peak; The trading volume of second-hand houses has been continuously for many months. Compared with the peak trading volume, the monthly sliding volume is also as high as nearly 6000 sets.
According to the statistics of anjuke, the total number of online signed new houses in Ningbo from 2021 was 115346, down 14% year-on-year. Among them, the total number of online signings in the six districts of the city was 64435, accounting for 55.86%.
From the transaction performance in recent three years, the online signing of new houses in Ningbo exceeded 110000 sets in 2021, of which the results in the first half of the year were brilliant, and the trading volume even exceeded 16000 sets in January. However, since the continuous tightening of Ningbo regulation in April, the trend of new houses and second-hand houses has shown the characteristics of “high opening and low going”.
In terms of new houses, January 2021 started quite well, creating the highest amount of online signing in that year. According to the statistics of anjuke, the transaction volume of new houses in Ningbo remained stable at about 11000 units from March to June. The online signing volume continued to decline from July to November. The online signing volume fell below 10000 units in July, and then fell to the lowest value of 5133 units in November month by month. Although the amount of online signing picked up in December, it only pulled the data back to the results of September.
data source: anjuke
After entering February this year, the transaction has warmed up. According to the commercial houses in the six districts announced by Ningbo real estate market management center, 2452 units were sold in February, up about 33% from January.
In terms of second-hand houses, the trading volume has been declining since March last year, reaching the lowest value of 1187 units in October. Since then, although there has been a slowdown, the average monthly trading volume has not exceeded 2000 sets. In January this year, the trading volume of second-hand houses in Ningbo was 1852 units, which fell to 1588 units in February, down about 14% month on month.
Yan Yuejin believes that from the perspective of the transaction trend of new houses and second-hand houses in Ningbo for more than a year, including the reduction of interest rates and the relaxation of the policy of recognizing houses and loans, it is objectively hoped to relax the house purchase policy. Similarly, it is possible that the transaction market of the follow-up real estate market will pick up.
