Investment advice
Recently, the correction range of automobile and parts sector is large, and the market has more concerns about the industry demand, the price rise of batteries and raw materials and the supply chain. We believe that the overall sales volume of the passenger car industry is stable this year, the new energy industry maintains a high boom, the sales volume increases rapidly, the marginal increase in the price of bulk raw materials improves, and the valuation falls below the central level, which has fully reflected the downward expectation of profitability. It is suggested to pay attention to the opportunity of low absorption.
Reasons
The steady growth of passenger car sales throughout the year is supported, and the sales performance of new energy is expected to continue to outperform the industry. In February, affected by the Spring Festival holiday and the repeated epidemic situation, the production and sales of passenger cars decreased significantly month on month, but the range was basically comparable to the corresponding decline in sales volume due to the reduction in the actual number of working days. The new energy market maintained a high momentum, with wholesale sales increasing by 189.1% year-on-year, and the penetration rate remained high (21.8%). The orders of Tesla, Byd Company Limited(002594) and new forces and other leading new energy vehicle enterprises recovered rapidly after the festival, showing strong demand and strong brand recognition. Looking forward to the whole year, we believe that the replenishment cycle is expected to support the steady growth of wholesale sales in the industry, while the high growth of new energy market and strong cycle brands are expected to continue to significantly outperform the industry.
The marginal improvement of the price rise of bulk raw materials is obvious, and the best-selling brands are expected to better deal with the risk of battery price rise.
Since 2022, the price of major automotive bulk raw materials except aluminum has increased slightly, and the increase of single vehicle cost is less than 1000 yuan, which is significantly improved compared with last year. Reviewing the gross profit margin of 1-3q21 auto enterprises, the head auto enterprises have better hedged the rising cost through the upward product structure. In addition, according to the feedback of automobile enterprises, the battery cost generally increased by 10-15% at the beginning of the year, which does not rule out the possibility of further price increase in the future. In response to the decline of subsidies at the beginning of the year, the price of main car enterprises increased by about 5000 yuan / car. Although the new orders decreased in January 2022, the orders recovered well after the festival, and some brands reached the high level in December 2021. At present, the supply of best-selling brands is in short supply and the waiting period for cars is long. We believe that there is room for car enterprises to further raise prices and digest rising costs.
The valuation of the sector fell back to an all-time low and focused on low absorption opportunities. Since 2022, the profit forecast of some leading enterprises has been greatly reduced. We believe that it has reflected the market's expectation of demand and upstream price rise.
In terms of valuation, the correction range of the stock price of the whole vehicle and parts sector generally exceeds 50%, of which the stock price of the whole vehicle has been close to the low point before the rise of 1h20, and the new power auto enterprises have returned to the historical low. The valuations of several sub circuits are significantly lower than the average value of the past three years, the average p / E ratio of the whole vehicle a / h has fallen to less than 15 times / 10 times, and the average valuation of traditional / growing parts has fallen to about 20 / 25 times, Attractive. If many of the above concerns can be alleviated from March, such as the further stabilization of sales data and the landing of battery price negotiations, we believe it is expected to drive the valuation back to the upward track.
Profit forecast and valuation
Suggestions: 1) heavy trucks: Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) a / h, Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co.Ltd(000951) a / h, Weifu High-Technology Group Co.Ltd(000581) , Aofu Environmental Technology Co.Ltd(688021) (not covered); 2) Power exchange equipment: Suzhou Harmontronics Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688022) , Shandong Weida Machinery Co.Ltd(002026) ; 3) Electric Intelligence: Shanghai W-Ibeda High Tech.Group Co.Ltd(688071) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Shinry Technologies Co.Ltd(300745) (uncovered), etc; 4) Motor: Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) , Tongling Jingda Special Magnet Wire Co.Ltd(600577) (uncovered), Jee Technology Co.Ltd(688162) ; 5) Parts: Tianrun Industry Technology Co.Ltd(002283) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) ; 6) Head independent vehicle and new power vehicle enterprises: Xiaopeng, ideal, great wall, Chang'an and Geely.
Risk
Chip supply eased less than expected, and the epidemic repeatedly affected automobile production and sales.
