Viewpoint: according to the PMI data for three consecutive months, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still a rebound, and the downward pressure is still large. However, the data recovery may boost the market in the short term. In addition, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole has maintained a good foundation. After the central bank lowered the reserve requirement and LPR in the fourth quarter of last year, the central bank lowered the MLF and reverse repo interest rate in the beginning of the year, and the monetary easing cycle gradually opened. Under the expectation of abundant liquidity, the market as a whole was still boosted in the short term, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has slowed down, the overseas market has risen strongly, the mood of A-Shares has been boosted and opened significantly higher, and the two-day bottom recovery ushered in an oversold rebound. With the support of fundamentals, the logic of the market towards a good trend remains unchanged. However, the one-day rebound remains to be seen. Under the concerns and uncertainties of many parties, the index still has the possibility of repeatedly or even bottoming again
Today's A-share market was a success. Under the booming opening in the morning, more than 4200 stocks rose, and track stocks such as lithium new energy, wine consumption and medicine all soared. Recently, oil stocks that rose due to geographical turmoil fell, and petrochemical stocks with a market value of more than 100 billion rose sharply.
The sharp opening of A-Shares was mainly due to the overall counterattack in the overseas market yesterday. The three major US stock indexes rose by more than 2%, while the stock markets of Germany, Austria, France and other countries soared by more than 7%, and all Asia Pacific indexes also strengthened. Therefore, today's rise is more stimulated by external factors than the essential boost of a shares. Therefore, under yesterday's sharp decline or recovery and today's sharp rise, it is still uncertain whether it is a rebound or a rebound, which needs to be observed in the next few trading days.
Only from the technical point of view, if the next index can quickly recover and recover the 5-day moving average, the rebound here will be sustainable and may reverse, but if it can not effectively recover the 5-day moving average, it is possible to bottom again. If there is still uncertainty overseas and the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates, we still need to be careful that the index bottoms again. Of course, after the previous continuous decline and recent sharp decline, there is little room for the index to continue to decline in the face of the support of fundamentals and the current low valuation, and the overall bottom is mainly shock;
From the strength of today's market rise, the trading volume has not been effectively released. Although the white horse stock has a good rise, more subject stocks have a strong rebound, which is not conducive to the continued rise of the index. So the best thing is to suggest investors to wait and see again. From the perspective of operation, if there was low absorption yesterday, today's high opening and even a high walk are the time to reduce holdings, especially those who want to reduce costs by price difference. For those who do not absorb low or remain on the sidelines, they can also consider reducing their holdings appropriately with the help of today's sharp opening and upward, and consider taking back once they fall back.
On the whole, continuous adjustment superimposed sharp falls, and the risk in the market stage was released. Driven by the overseas sharp rebound sentiment, A-Shares rebounded from the bottom and ushered in an oversold rebound under the sharp opening, but under the interference and concern of many parties, there is still the possibility of repetition in the short term. If you can't go up quickly, you should also beware of the index bottoming again. However, with the support of many parties, the overall A-share is still at the bottom of shock. For radical investors, we can continue to consider buying low in batches. For steady investors, they can also wait and see with light positions and patiently wait for the market to stabilize.