Core summary
Investment suggestion: we judge that the A-share market can still achieve positive returns in 2022, but the performance of the index may not be as good as that in 2021, and there is a structural market. We suggest paying attention to these directions: (1) the theme of "steady growth". In 2022, the downward pressure on the economy continues to increase and China's demand is weak. In order to maintain the economic operation in a reasonable range, the national "steady growth" policy may be introduced one after another, and relevant sectors will also take the lead. We can pay attention to infrastructure, building materials and real estate. (2) New economic theme. High end technology manufacturing industry may be an important driving force for future economic growth. It is suggested to pay attention to chip semiconductors and high-end intelligent manufacturing with accelerated domestic substitution and rapid growth of the industry. (3) Emerging consumption themes. At present, China's PPI is at a high level and CPI rises slowly. The subsequent scissors difference between the two is expected to converge, and the industrial profits will shift from the upstream to the middle and downstream. It is expected that there will be some opportunities in the consumer sector. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the food, beverage and household appliances sectors. (4) Epidemic Damage theme. With the further improvement of vaccination rates in developing countries such as Africa, Mexico and Brazil, the global epidemic is expected to be further controlled. There is momentum for valuation and repair in the affected sectors of the epidemic, which can be paid attention to: airports, tourism and cinemas.
Focus on hot topics: (1) the government work report is released, and the development of digital economy is facing a new wave. On March 5, Premier Li Keqiang delivered a government work report to the conference. The "digital economy" is mentioned again in the government work report, and its relevant contents attract people's attention. We believe that with the deepening of economic and social digitization, the development of digital economy will be further accelerated. In this window period of intensive introduction of policies, the digital economy will usher in a broader space for development. Related targets are: 1) 5g base station: Wuxi Hodgen Technology Co.Ltd(300279) ; 2) Cloud computing related: Inspur Electronic Information Industry Co.Ltd(000977) etc. (2) The intensive introduction of policies may drive the advanced manufacturing industry to make another breakthrough. On March 5, when delivering a government work report to the fifth session of the 13th National People's Congress, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said that a number of industrial infrastructure reconstruction projects would be launched. We believe that the focus of industrial foundation remanufacturing projects lies in the transformation of intelligence, new energy and domestic substitution. Therefore, under the incentive of intensive policies, the development of manufacturing industry is expected to achieve new breakthroughs, and semiconductor equipment, cutting tool industry, lithium battery equipment and other related industries are expected to continue to benefit. The related targets include: China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co.Ltd(000657) , Suzhou Uigreen Micro&Nano Technologies Co.Ltd(688661) and Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) . (3) The military budget is stable and upward, and the strategy focuses on more opportunities for national defense construction. On March 5, the budget report submitted by China's Ministry of finance at the National People's congress showed that the military budget in 2022 was 1.45 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%. Although China's military spending continues to rise, there is still a certain gap compared with the United States and other military powers. We believe that there is still much room for improvement in national defense construction in the future, and it is in the critical period of military aircraft upgrading. It is expected that the demand is expected to continue in large quantities in the next few years. Relevant targets include: Avic Xi'An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) , Avicopter Plc(600038) etc.
Revenue performance of hot topics: among the hot topics from February 28 to March 4, the top gainers are China Japan South Korea Free Trade Zone, coal mining, anti nuclear radiation, crude oil storage and transportation and wine. The main reason is that affected by geopolitics and commodity prices, relevant sectors are sought after. The top five declines were superhard materials, PTA, Weilai automobile, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) industrial chain and TWS headphones. The main reason is that the current valuation of relevant concept sectors is high, and the recent tightening of funds and the risk of global inflation have led to significant adjustments.
From February 28 to March 4, among shenwanyi industries, the top five gainers last week were coal, transportation, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine and biology, petroleum and petrochemical; The top five declines were electronics, national defense and military industry, automobile, communication and power equipment. Judging from the cumulative net inflow last week, the top five cumulative net inflows are coal, transportation, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, steel and social services; The top five cumulative net outflows are computers, electronics, power equipment, mechanical equipment and automobiles.
Risk warning: the promotion of relevant policies is not as expected; Geopolitical risk interpretation exceeded expectations.
