Event:
Today, the market bottomed out and rebounded, with a sharp intraday shock. There were some positive signals on the after hours news.
Key investment points:
There are three main positive signals in the current market. First, the signal of stabilizing expectations has gradually become clear. In the past two days, high performing listed companies have successively released performance forecasts for the first two months of this year, and more than ten companies, including Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) , Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) and so on, have released their first monthly operating data for the first time. Among them, the growth rate of revenue and net profit of all companies that have disclosed monthly reports is positive, with the median growth rate of revenue of 40% and the median growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company of 50%. The overall performance is bright. Under the background of continuous adjustment in the current market, the expected guiding role is prominent; Second, there are signs of marginal improvement in the situation between Russia and Ukraine. The ruling party of Ukraine expressed its national neutrality for the first time, saying that Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO in the next few years. At the same time, Ukrainian President Zelensky issued the latest video speech, saying that Ukraine is preparing for the next round of negotiations with Russia to achieve peace; Third, China’s policy is active and steady growth continues to make moves. The formulation of the economic growth target of 5.5% in the national two sessions is relatively positive. The central bank turns over the balance profits to the central government, with a total amount of more than 1 trillion yuan, marking the dual pronged development of money and finance.
After continuous market adjustment, there is an opportunity for oversold rebound. A sustained rebound requires substantial easing of upstream price concerns. Since the beginning of this year, the core factors of market adjustment have three aspects in turn. The first is the concern about the tightening of the Federal Reserve, the second is the disturbance of risk appetite caused by the sudden war between Russia and Ukraine, and the third is the derivative risk caused by the long-term conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which is mainly reflected in the soaring oil price caused by sanctions and the global expectation of stagflation. From the follow-up interpretation, it is almost certain that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25bp in mid March. After the interest rate increase is implemented, the Fed will adopt the monetary policy idea of “walking and watching”, and the most tense time of tightening expectations has passed. The time when the intensity of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine was the highest has probably passed, and there are signs of easing the positions of all parties. The sanctions on Russian energy are in form rather than substance. Reflected in the prices of various assets, the peripheral stock markets rebounded significantly after the closing of a shares, the main stock indexes in Europe rose by more than 3%, the oil price, gold price and US dollar index fell significantly, and the market risk aversion eased. However, the sustained rebound requires a significant decline in the prices of upstream commodities and the easing of stagflation concerns.
The process of oversold rebound is not the opposite of steady growth and boom growth. There are opportunities for growth and value. The growth sector focuses on high boom segments with strong industrial cycle catalysis, such as photovoltaic, chip, green power and other sectors. The value sector focuses on the Baijiu liquor company with better performance and the policy margin is expected to relax the expected real estate.
Risk tip: the situation in Russia and Ukraine worsened again, Sino US relations deteriorated, US monetary policy tightened more than expected, and the external market fell sharply.
