Macro: the Fed may raise interest rates lower than expected, and the tone of China’s steady economic growth is clear again. Abroad: on March 2, US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted that he would raise interest rates by 25 basis points in March, or dispel the radical expectation of raising interest rates. China: on March 5, the 2022 government work report was released. The tone of steady economic growth was clear, infrastructure was more responsible, and the annual GDP growth target was about 5.5%.
Steel: steel demand continues to pick up and profitability has increased significantly. This week, the output of rebar increased significantly by 6.12% month on month, and the consumption increased significantly by 29.36% month on month. The resumption of production of steel enterprises continued this week. According to Mysteel data, the capacity utilization rate of rebar in the process of this week was 70.9%, with a significant increase of 2.36pct month on month. The national development and Reform Commission will maintain the normal order of the market and ensure the stable operation of iron ore and coal prices, which may benefit steel enterprises on the cost side.
New energy metals: concerns about overseas supply patterns have increased, and nickel prices have risen sharply this week. In terms of lithium, the price of 56.5% domestic lithium hydroxide this week was 453500 yuan / ton, a significant increase of 9.15% month on month; The price of domestic 99.5% battery grade lithium carbonate was 495000 yuan / ton, up 6.68% month on month. This week, the month on month ratio of MB standard cobalt increased significantly, and the month on month ratio of Co3O4 increased slightly. In terms of nickel, the spot settlement price of LME nickel this week was US $29800 / ton, up 20.65% month on month.
Industrial metals: the goal of steady growth is clear, the geopolitical crisis intensifies, and industrial metals fluctuate upward. This week, the TC / RC of copper smelters was flat on a month on month basis. The global refined copper output and primary refined copper output decreased slightly on a month on month basis in November. The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum remained high at 89% in December, with a slight increase of 0.93pct on a month on month basis; In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory decreased significantly month on month, and LME aluminum inventory decreased significantly month on month; In terms of price, the current price of LME copper increased significantly by 5.54% month on month, and the current price of LME aluminum increased slightly by 0.99% month on month; In terms of profits, the profits of electrolytic aluminum in Xinjiang and Yunnan increased month on month this week, while the profits of electrolytic aluminum in Shandong and Inner Mongolia decreased month on month.
Kim: the situation in Ukraine continues to deteriorate, and risk aversion pushes up the price of gold. This week, Comex gold prices rose significantly by 3.65% month on month, and the number of non-commercial net long positions in gold rose sharply by 13.83% month on month; This week, the yield of us 10-year Treasury bond was 1.74%, down slightly by 0.23pct month on month.
Investment proposal and investment object
Steel: for ordinary steel, it is suggested to pay attention to listed companies with low carbon emission intensity and energy consumption per ton of steel on the one hand, and Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) ( Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) , buy), Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) ( Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) , not rated), Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) ( Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , buy), and listed companies with low Pb on the other hand, such as Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) ( Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) , not rated), Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) ( Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , not rated) Angang Steel Company Limited(000898) ( Angang Steel Company Limited(000898) , not rated), Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) ( Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) , not rated); In terms of special steel, it is suggested to pay attention to special material suppliers of new energy nuclear power and wind power, such as Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) ( Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) , buy).
New energy metals: it is suggested to pay attention to enterprises rich in lithium resources such as Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ( Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , not rated), Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ( Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , buy), Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) ( Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , not rated), etc.
Copper: it is suggested to pay attention to Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) ( Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , buy); And lithium battery copper foil manufacturers: Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ( Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , not rated), Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) ( Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , not rated), etc.
Aluminum: it is suggested to pay attention to Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) ( Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , not rated), Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) ( Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) , buy), and high-end aluminum enterprises Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) ( Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , not rated).
Jin: it is suggested to pay attention to industry leaders Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) ( Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , buy), Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) ( Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) , not rated), Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) ( Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) , not rated), etc
Risk tips
Macroeconomic growth slowed down; Price fluctuation of raw materials
