The "disappearance" of consumption and the withdrawal of stocks. After the covid-19 epidemic in 2020, the per capita disposable income and per capita consumption expenditure of Chinese urban residents have been greatly impacted, and the growth rate has not yet returned to the pre epidemic level. However, in terms of the performance of consumer stocks, they have maintained an upward trend before the Spring Festival in 2021, with even higher returns compared with other styles; The complete weakness of the consumer sector occurred after May 2021, which is closely related to the weakness of real estate. Basically, this differentiation can also be confirmed - after the epidemic, high-end consumption will not be affected or even benefit, while mass consumption will be damaged. The differentiation of consumer stocks reflects the logic of market pricing. From the initial "middle and low-income people are damaged due to the epidemic, while high-income people are not affected", to the "middle and high-end consumption of high-income people is damaged due to the shrinkage of wealth effect" after the real estate weakens in the second quarter of 2021.
In the world after "promoting consumption", taking the United States as a mirror, there is a "polarization between the rich and the poor" in stocks. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the United States has had three rounds of cash payment plans and relatively loose epidemic prevention and control policies. Different from China, under the government transfer payment, the per capita disposable income of the United States continued to significantly exceed the pre epidemic level, the personal consumption expenditure also exceeded the pre epidemic level in early 2021, and the total consumption remained stable. In terms of structure, the necessary consumption has not been impacted by the epidemic, which reflects that the one-time cash payment better ensures people's basic needs; Even most consumer goods have surpassed the trend before the epidemic, but some durable consumer goods with high unit price have begun to weaken, which may mean that it is necessary to improve the long-term income expectation to really increase the corresponding consumption, and the sustainability of consumption increment under one-time subsidy is not strong; Catering, the representative of service consumption, has not returned to the pre epidemic level, which means that not only epidemic prevention and control is very important in the recovery of service consumption, but also the improvement of the epidemic itself. U.S. consumer stocks also correspond to the above three characteristics: first, the market recognizes the online consumption benefiting from the epidemic; Second, after the epidemic, there was a more obvious phenomenon of "polarization between the rich and the poor". Luxury stocks were popular, and the stocks of daily necessities, food and low-cost textile and clothing companies began to weaken after the end of cash subsidies; Third, there is also a "subsidy pulse" in service consumption stocks. The performance of affordable catering is always stable because it can deliver meals without contact, while the performance of high-end service consumption stocks is relatively better after November 2021, which reflects that US stock investors believe that the service industry with low passenger flow density and high-end is less impacted by the epidemic and income.
Structural reversal of consumption: really worth "waiting". In view of the three factors causing the consumption dilemma, we believe that the "consumption promotion" policy will appear in various forms such as "relaxing the epidemic control", "stabilizing employment" and "stabilizing real estate", supplemented by targeted consumption vouchers or cash subsidies to help the middle and low-income groups and service consumption industries with the most serious income loss in the epidemic. From the perspective of these three possible policy directions, the market has full expectations for the marginal improvement of "epidemic prevention and control", especially for the service consumption (catering, duty-free, hotels and scenic spots) seriously damaged by the epidemic in the past two years. However, it should be reminded that for catering and other service industries with high concentration, from the experience of the United States, The return of fundamentals to the pre epidemic level requires not only the relaxation of epidemic control, but also the real improvement of the epidemic itself, and the reduction of infection risk may be more important; The firm implementation of the policy guidance of "housing without speculation" since 2021 and the decline of real estate have changed the expectations of real estate enterprises and relevant investors. Although the recovery of the real estate industry has definite direction, the "wealth effect" of real estate is difficult to be marginally strengthened, and the balance between capital and labor force in common prosperity is superimposed, The era of systematically pushing up the asset income of income groups, resulting in the rapid expansion of high-end consumption has passed.
The call of consumption " Newland Digital Technology Co.Ltd(000997) ": different from the "gap between the rich and the poor" of U.S. consumer stocks, China's consumer stocks are facing a trend of increasing the systematic importance of low - and middle-income people as consumers under "common prosperity". Employment stability and income improvement are the more key drivers of consumption prosperity and consumer stock market. On the contrary, the "promotion fee" without long-term expected improvement of income will return to calm after one-time subsidy. More importantly, in the past, with the rise of "urban elites", the accumulation of capitalization and the expansion of income differentiation as the cornerstone, it has created the "long slope and thick snow" of a class of consumer stocks. After the epidemic, the world may need to re-examine the changes in consumption trends. The short-term and long-term changes in the balance are more definitely inclined to low-income people. Positioning medium and low-end, second-line and regional companies is the direction we think has more investment opportunities, and it is also a place we have never seen in the past consensus.
Risk tip: the law of consumption psychology may be heterogeneous, and the implementation of consumption promotion policies is different from the hypothesis.
