\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 369 Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) )
Event:
The company released the business data announcement from January to February 2022. From January to February 2022, the company achieved a revenue of about 2.45 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 25%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of about 940 million, a year-on-year increase of about 26%.
Comments:
The sales of special class a products continued to improve. During the Spring Festival this year, the sales of products increased well and achieved a “good start”. Among them, the sales of special a + products were good, the sales of medium and high-end products such as four opening and two-way opening continued to increase, and the growth rate of 100200 yuan products improved significantly month on month, which is expected to be related to the tide of returning home after the epidemic. We expect the company’s revenue and profit to be high in the first quarter, with guaranteed growth.
Stable price and good payment collection. 21q1 company upgraded the Sikai, and the ex factory price was increased from 450 yuan to 480 yuan. It adopted the dual track system of cooperation and price, and the new Sikai was officially introduced into the market at the end of May 21. Up to now, the wholesale price of xinsikai has been stable at 420430 yuan, and the terminal price is 450460 yuan. The channel profit has been effectively improved. The successful card slot is 400500 yuan, and the sub high-end price segment is expected to benefit from the upgrading of consumption in the province. The payment collection progress of dealers in the province is 40% +, and part is 50% +. 22 year Outlook: seek fast and high-quality development, and strengthen the guarantee of marketing mechanism. The year 22 is the second year of the 14th five year plan, and it is also a key year to achieve the goal of 10 billion yuan in the 14th five year plan ahead of schedule.
At the 22nd annual development conference, the company proposed to “strive for speed in the best way”, “good” is the premise of speed, can be the fastest, promote high-quality development, adhere to the 13445 strategy, that is, grasp one main line, follow the three modernizations strategy, enhance four confidence, deepen four campaigns and strengthen five guarantees. One main line is “focus on high quality and focus on new leaps”. The three modernizations are differentiation, high-end and nationalization. The four campaigns are Guoyuan V-series battle, Guoyuan K-series promotion battle, Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) brand activation battle and market breakthrough battle outside the province, so as to continue to promote the coordinated development of brands, products and regions. In addition, in the next 22 years, the company will strengthen the guarantee of system and mechanism. On the one hand, the company will orderly establish the three brand business departments of V9, Guoyuan, Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) and Gaogou sales company. On the other hand, it will establish V99 alliance at the development conference, select 99 dealers from key markets inside and outside the province to establish alliance, and enjoy the one-to-one guidance of the company’s leaders and various training and learning opportunities, Enhance the strength of dealers, give play to the role of benchmarking, and unite to complete the company’s marketing objectives.
Medium and long term outlook: the marketing mechanism is guaranteed to follow up, and the equity incentive is expected to be launched, which is optimistic about the long-term development of the company. The company plans to strive to achieve revenue of 10 billion yuan and strive for 15 billion yuan in 2025, corresponding to an annual growth rate of 15% and 25%. In the next few years, the company has a clear strategy, that is, focusing on the development of V-series and K-series, and greatly increasing the proportion outside the province. At the same time, the company’s marketing guarantee mechanism has been continuously optimized and upgraded. On the one hand, it has orderly established V9, Guoyuan, Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) three major brand business departments and Gaogou sales company. On the other hand, it has established V99 alliance at the development conference, which is conducive to achieving the company’s marketing objectives in unity. In addition, the company issued the equity incentive plan in 20 years, completed the repurchase plan at the end of 21 years, and the 22-year equity incentive is expected to be launched. At that time, the vitality of the company is expected to be further released.
Profit forecast: in the short term, the company’s four products will be upgraded, and the card slot will be 400500 yuan, with a secondary high-end price band, which is expected to benefit from the upgrading of consumption in the province. In the long run, the company’s product structure has been continuously improved, the V-series strategy has been redeployed, the K-series has been upgraded and upgraded, the national layout has been continuously promoted, the marketing mechanism guarantee has been continuously followed up, the equity incentive has been gradually implemented, and the vitality of the company is expected to be further released. We predict that the revenue growth rate of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 26%, 20% and 18% respectively; The growth rate of net profit was 29%, 24% and 19% respectively, and EPS was 1.61, 1.99 and 2.36 yuan / share respectively. Considering the current valuation of the Baijiu industry and the characteristics of the regional leading companies, we maintain the company’s “buy” rating according to the 2022 performance to 30 times PE and the target price of 60 yuan per year.
Risk warning: the competition in the province intensifies, and the company has major management defects; Macroeconomic fluctuations have taken place, Baijiu consumption has declined sharply.
