\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 677 Qingdao Novelbeam Technology Co.Ltd(688677) )
Key investment points
Minimally invasive era + fluorescent fast track, industry β Lay the foundation for hard mirror high growth. The volume of minimally invasive surgery in China was close to 12 million in 2019, and cagr19.5 million in 20152019 5%. In 2019, the number of MIS (minimally invasive surgery) received by millions of people in China was only 1 / 2 of that in the United States in the same period, and the penetration rate in surgery was only 38%. Compared with 80% penetration rate in the United States in the same period, there is at least twice the room for improvement. We believe that the era of minimally invasive surgery in China has come, and the accelerated penetration mode is expected to be opened in the next 5-10 years. In 2019, the global market scale of fluorescent hard mirror will reach US $1.31 billion, and it is estimated that cagr24.5 billion will be in 20192024 3%. China's fluorescent hard mirror started late. It is expected that the scale of fluorescent hard mirror will grow rapidly from 110 million in 2019 to 3.52 billion yuan in 2024. Compared with white light, fluorescent endoscope will become a new driving force for the growth of hard mirror in the future. Fluorescent hard mirror rewrites the global pattern of white light hard mirror. Stryker was first commercialized in North America in 2016. In 2019, it was the largest company, accounting for 78% of the world, creating a new pattern of global fluorescence. There are few players of fluorescent endoscopes in China as a whole, and domestic manufacturers are expected to overtake on the curve by relying on technological innovation.
The company has both internal and external training and vertical integration of industrial chain to build a leading enterprise of fluorescent hard mirror.
1) make a fortune in export: deeply bind major overseas customers, and the global competitive advantage continues to expand. In 2019, the company's laparoscopic exports accounted for 11.34% of the total exports of endoscopes in China, ranking first. Foreign revenue accounts for more than 80%, the company's top five customers account for more than 85%, and the revenue from Stryker accounts for more than 60%. The sales volume grew steadily, the price of core components was stable and upward, and the profitability continued to improve. The company is the only design and production supplier of the core components of Stryker's high-definition fluorescent celiac mirror, which is bound by in-depth cooperation with Stryker. Why did the company enter the European and American endoscope supply chain and become the only fluorescent supplier of Stryker? The first is to seize the opportunity step by step. The company leads the implementation of the needs of Stryker endoscopy with the underlying technology, and achieves the exclusive supply of technology; The second is independent design and production. The overall procurement cost of the company is stable and has a significant cost advantage; Finally, independent research and development, continuous iterative upgrading of the company's products, and global leadership in key core technologies. We believe that the company is expected to achieve rapid revenue growth with the growth of sales of Stryker fluorescent endoscopes.
2) domestic sales: from upstream ODM / OEM to midstream independent brand, the whole machine strategy is extended, and the strategic positioning is for the larger end market of downstream hard mirror. ODM and OEM modes are the main sales modes of the company, and the sales of independent brands account for less than 3%. Why does the company extend vertically from the upstream? And what is the current opportunity to expand the midstream machine? From the perspective of the market, ① the gross profit margin of the whole machine is not equal to that of the components. Through the continuous upgrading of technology, we can grasp the right to increase the price, and the profitability of system level products may be greatly improved; ② For the company, the value space of the whole machine system can greatly improve the ceiling of growth; ③ Compared with the world, China's fluorescence has no scale leader, and the blue ocean pattern should enter the Bureau as soon as possible. From the perspective of the company, it has the ability of industrial chain integration from upstream to midstream, and the advantages of vertical integration of the company outweigh the disadvantages. ① Upstream components: first mover's independent production advantage. The company has a full range of services from design, prototype production to mass production. ② Camera system: the company has made breakthroughs in key technologies of CMOS / ISP imaging system to make up for the technical bottleneck of imaging system. ③ Gradual expansion of channels: as the upstream sales cost is lower than the whole machine, the company's sales cost still has room to improve. Based on Shandong, the national multi-dimensional marketing is accelerated. We believe that the advantages of cooperation between the company and Stryker complement each other. Due to the differences between the company's own brand and Stryker's complete machine in departments, hospitals and national markets, the two complete machines do not constitute direct competition.
3) product formation: differentiation, continuous innovation, extensive product line layout, laying the foundation for large-scale production of the whole machine. The registration of multiple components and camera systems in the company's whole machine system in China has accelerated in recent two years. The cold light source of endoscope obtained the product registration certificate in August 2021, the 1080p high-definition camera system passed the registration in China in September 2021, and the 4K ultra-high-definition camera system has also obtained the certificate at the end of January 2022. The new products will gradually relay to open the Chinese market. The company's products aim at the pain point of Chinese hospital demand, and differentiated innovative categories such as automatic defogging endoscope system (expected to be approved in the middle of 2022) and high-resolution confocal endoscope (approved at the end of January 2022) help improve the reputation of the terminal.
Investment suggestion and Valuation: the company deeply binds Stryker with the exclusive supply of optical components. With the acceleration of the substitution of fluorescence for white hard mirror in North America and the market expansion in Japan and Europe, the company has ushered in a historic increase in orders for optical components. The company's vertically integrated complete machine system and innovative categories have been gradually approved and listed, which is expected to become a new growth point of the company. After the outbreak, new products were put on the market, and the optical device sector resumed rapid volume. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 118 / 175 / 230 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 22.2% / 48.6% / 31.7%. Give the company 50xpe for 22 years, corresponding to the share price of 100 yuan. For the first time, give a "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the product R & D registration time is less than the expected risk, the proportion of single customers is too high, the promotion of new products is less than the expected risk, and the market competition intensifies the risk.
