\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 233 Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) )
Event: Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) announced that from January to February 2022, the express business completed 2.297 billion tickets, a year-on-year increase of 27.81%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was about 545 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 186.36%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non recurring profits and losses was about 516 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 207.45%.
From January to February, the growth rate of the company’s parts volume exceeded expectations, mainly driven by the consumption of upstream e-commerce, the concentration of industry pattern and the outflow of peer shares. According to the announcement, from January to February, the growth rate of parts volume reached 27.8%. Excluding the disturbance of the Spring Festival, the growth rate of parts volume of the company exceeded expectations. According to the development index report of the State Post Office, the growth rate of the industry from January to February was about 19%, and the growth rate of the company was significantly ahead of the average level of the industry. We believe that there are two main reasons for the outstanding performance of the company from January to February: 1) the consumption of upstream e-commerce is good, the Spring Festival is not closed, more consumption habits are cultivated in the second year, and emerging platforms such as live e-commerce effectively boost online consumption; 2) For example, our research found that there is a loss of customers in the integration process of Jitu and Baishi, and the share will be further concentrated to the leading enterprises.
The profit of express delivery will increase significantly from January to February, but it will not be as reasonable as expected. According to our calculation, from January to February 2022, the company’s net profit per ticket reached 0.24 yuan. After excluding aviation and freight forwarding business, the net profit of single ticket express delivery was about 0.21 yuan. According to our calculation, the company’s 21q1-q4 single ticket express profit is 0.10, 0.04, 0.04 and 0.14 yuan respectively. Previously, we mentioned that “the price increase of the express headquarters is mainly concentrated in November, and the high price is mainly concentrated in November / December, so it can be predicted that the single ticket profit will be higher during the peak season”. Considering that the price from January to February basically continues the price of last year’s peak season (the terminal survey feedback that the industry price has been stable since 2022), the single ticket profit of 0.21 yuan from January to February basically corresponds to the profit level of last year’s peak season, which is in line with the reality. Combined with the recent terminal price performance and the rise in fuel costs, we expect the profit level of single ticket express of 2022q1 company to be about 0.19-0.20 yuan, the central year-on-year / month on month growth rate to be + 95% / + 39% respectively, and the certainty of Q1 performance will increase. January February is an important observation window period for the industry to turn from prosperity to weakness. The current performance has exceeded expectations. For the traditional off-season of Q2, we are generally optimistic about the off-season performance.
The rise of oil price may be conductive. It is expected that the general tone of price will be stable in 2022, and the company will continue to usher in the double rise of performance and valuation. Recently, China’s diesel price has followed Brent crude oil into the rising channel. We calculate that for every 10% increase in China’s oil price, the impact cost is about 0.01 yuan. Considering the cost uncertainty brought by the oil price, combined with the current competitive ecology of the industry, when the oil price remains too high, each brand has a high probability of passing on the cost increase through price increase simultaneously. Looking forward to 2022, since March, the regulations on the promotion of the express industry of Zhejiang Province have been officially implemented. From the more macro perspective of the “14th five year plan” for the development of the postal industry and the management measures for the express market (Revised Draft), we can see the consistency and firm determination of supervision, and the industry is confirmed to enter a turning period of high-quality development. The company focuses on promoting the adjustment of product structure and maintaining a good price level. We predict that the company will continue to improve its performance in 2022. At the same time, changes in the industry and the company’s own changes will also bring a higher valuation level.
Investment suggestion: the demand and profit from January to February 2022 are higher than expected, and the off-season feature of this year is expected to appear. The regulatory policies of the industry remain high-pressure, the leading business strategies of the industry have undergone qualitative changes, and the inflection point of the development of the industry has been confirmed. We are optimistic about the brand premium brought by the company’s continuous digital capacity-building and customer structure adjustment. The company will continue to usher in the double rise of performance and valuation. From the medium and long-term perspective, under the background of continuous improvement of online penetration, the industry is a growth track in large space, services have become a new competitive factor, and the industry price is expected to rise steadily. At the same time, the industry pattern is gradually clear, and the leader will fully benefit from the share and stable profit increase. Under the assumption that the rise of oil price can be transmitted, based on the higher than expected profit level of the company from January to February 2022, we raised the profit forecast. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 2.12/33.0/4.21 billion respectively, corresponding to 26 / 17 / 13 times of the current share price PE, maintaining the “Buy-A” rating.
Risk tip: the demand for e-commerce parts is less than expected, the price competition in the industry is less than expected, and the rigid costs such as oil price, labor and rent are rising.
