\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 899 Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) )
Event:
The company released the performance express for 2021: in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 17.607 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.02%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.518 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.91%. Q4 achieved a revenue of 5.455 billion yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year increase of 18.59%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 401 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.00%.
Comments:
The year-on-year growth rate of Q4 profit rebounded significantly, and the fundamental improvement trend appeared. The year-on-year growth of Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 revenue was 82.95% / 44.68% / 18.24% / 18.59% respectively, and the year-on-year growth of net profit attributable to parent company was 42.51% / 44.33% / 0.57% / 17.00% respectively. Q4's profit growth picked up month on month, mainly benefiting from the improvement of klip's profit, the iterative upgrading of traditional business products and the improvement of channel empowerment.
Traditional businesses grew steadily and are optimistic about the continued volume of new businesses. 1) Traditional business: affected by the double reduction policy and epidemic situation, the growth of 21h2 traditional business is under pressure in the short term. In the long run, the barrier and expansion ability of the company in traditional business are very strong. Although the growth pressure is affected by the external environment in the short term, with product optimization and store upgrading, the terminal market share is expected to continue to increase. 2) Klip: the office direct sales market has a broad space. Klip continues to win new customers, its market share has increased, and its revenue is expected to maintain rapid growth. At the same time, with the gradual emergence of scale effect, its profitability is expected to be further improved. 3) Large retail stores: as of 21q3, the company has 496 large retail stores, including 436 Jiumu stores (299 Direct stores + 137 franchisees) + 60 living halls. The Jiumu model has been successful, and it is expected that more than 100 new stores will be opened every year in the future.
We expect that the company's EPS in 22-23 years will be 1.94 and 2.27 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 25.2x and 21.6x respectively. Considering the steady increase of the market share of the company's traditional business and the promising future space of new business, we will maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the traditional business is less than expected, and the customer expansion of klip is less than expected.
