\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 369 Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released the announcement of main business data from January to February 2022. During the Spring Festival in 2022, product sales increased well and achieved a “good start”. According to the preliminary accounting of the company, from January to February 2022, the company achieved a total operating revenue of about 2.45 billion yuan, an increase of about 25% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was about 940 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 26%.
Guoyuan accounts for more than 80%, and V series will undertake upgrading in the future. According to the channel research, the overall payment collection proportion of the company is positive during the Spring Festival, and the growth rate of dynamic sales matches the report. In terms of products, according to the 21 year performance pre increase announcement announced by the company at the beginning of the year, the company disclosed that the growth rate of special a + category revenue is expected to exceed 35%, accounting for about 65% of the company’s revenue. Its China edge series performed well. While the four open led the growth, the channel feedback has also significantly accelerated the opening of other single products since the Spring Festival this year; We expect that there will be more room for V series products to play in the future. The company has combed the prices of V series products, and the ex factory price of V3 may be increased. In the future, it will undertake upgrading. V9 group purchase is the main atmosphere. At the same time, the Alliance is also constantly improving and upgrading, which is expected to focus on resources and drive brand influence.
The new Sikai channel performs well and is optimistic about the rapid growth of V series. After the launch of the new Sikai, it performed well and continued to maintain the strength of dynamic sales; V series continues to be high-end, and the elegant Maotai flavor of V9 is more suitable for Jiangsu taste. In the region, it focuses on the main markets such as Nanjing, Huai’an and Yancheng. V3 card upgrades the price band and has a large space for channel layout. According to the company’s announcement, the share repurchase to be used for equity incentive has been completed by the end of November 2021, taking a solid step in promoting equity incentive, which is expected to drive the implementation of incentive. As the representative of real estate liquor, the company reflects the steady growth elasticity of sub high-end. In the medium and long term, we believe that the company is still in the period of rising brand potential, and its share in the sub high-end price belt in the province is becoming more and more stable. We are optimistic that the company will achieve rapid growth through intensive cultivation in the province and steady expansion outside the province under the guidance of the revenue target of 10 billion in the “14th five year plan”, and we are hopeful to achieve the five-year goal in three years. After being optimistic about the target of 10 billion yuan, V series will further grow rapidly in the price band of 5001000.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: maintain the “buy” rating. It is estimated that the total operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 6.401/79.19/9.512 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 24.98% / 23.71% / 20.12%; The net profit was RMB 2.020/2.542/3.084 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 28.90% / 25.84% / 21.36%, the corresponding EPS was RMB 1.61/2.03/2.46, and the corresponding PE was 32, 25 and 21 times respectively. Key recommendations.
Risk warning: the global epidemic continues to spread; Consumption upgrading is less than expected; Food safety issues.
