\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 438 Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) )
Event: according to Tongwei’s announcement on March 9, 2022, the revenue from January to February 2022 was about 16 billion yuan, an increase of about 130% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 3.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 650%.
In 2022q1, the silicon material volume and profit increased, and Tongwei’s leading position in capacity expansion was stable: the effective output of China’s silicon material industry increased by 20000 tons in 2022q1. Due to the strong demand in 2022q1 and the prosperity of silicon material exceeded expectations, the average price of silicon material increased from 230000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 240000 yuan / ton, and the silicon material volume and profit increased in 2022q1. We expect the equity shipment of the company in 2022q1 to be about 37000 tons, an increase of 57% and 37% respectively, and the net profit per ton to be 110000 + and 230% respectively. The company’s annual shipment target is 200000 tons (the equity is expected to be 160000 ~ 170000 tons). Assuming that the annual average price of silicon material is 160000180000 yuan and the net profit per ton is 70 Faw Jiefang Group Co.Ltd(000800) 00 yuan, the corresponding annual silicon material business profit is expected to reach 12-14 billion yuan. At the same time, the capacity of silicon material continues to expand. At present, the capacity is 180000 tons, and the new capacity under construction is 150000 tons. After being put into operation, the scale effect is further improved.
Battery profitability continues to improve: at present, the company’s battery capacity exceeds 40gw. In Q2, it is expected that 7.5GW (Trina Solar joint venture) capacity will be put into operation, of which the large size accounts for nearly 70%. The battery business continued to improve. Q3 last year was the lowest profit point, and the profit continued to improve in 2022.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Based on the high prospect of photovoltaic and the consolidation of the leading position of silicon materials of the company, we raised the net profit forecast of RMB 8.475140.02/12.588 billion from 2021 to 2023 (the previous value was RMB 8.475120.01/12.588 billion), a year-on-year increase of + 134.9% / + 65.2% / – 10.1%, corresponding to 23 / 13.9/15.5 times of PE from 2021 to 2023, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the policy is less than expected and the competition intensifies.
