\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 809 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) )
Event: Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) issued the announcement on the operation from January to February 2022. According to the preliminary calculation, the total operating revenue from January to February was more than 7.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of more than 35%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was more than 2.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of more than 50%.
Achieve high growth under a high base, with strong growth momentum. From January to February 2022, the total revenue increased by 35% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 50% year-on-year. The growth of revenue and performance met market expectations, and the Spring Festival peak season made a successful start. According to channel feedback, since the end of the 21st century, the company has started to arrange Spring Festival sales, and has strictly implemented the quota system throughout the country for 22 years. At present, the proportion of payment collection is estimated to be 25-30%, and the inventory remains low. The market channel confidence in the province is sufficient and the terminal demand is strong. Although the epidemic situation in Henan and other markets outside the province was repeated at the beginning of the year, the dynamic sales gradually recovered in the later stage, and the impact is estimated to be relatively limited due to the superposition of Fenjiu’s own product power. Considering the high Q1 base in 21 years, Fenjiu continued its high growth from January to February, further verifying its strong brand and management potential. In March, the expected payment collection task was successfully achieved, the high growth of Q1 income has been guaranteed, and the reform dividend has been paid continuously.
Blue and white LED high growth, structural upgrading and continued dividend. In terms of products, it is estimated that the revenue of secondary high-end series such as blue and white from January to February has achieved a relatively high growth year-on-year. Under the upgrading of product structure, the profitability continues to rise and the profit elasticity is still obvious. It is estimated that the parent net interest rate from January to February of 22 is 36.49%, which is significantly higher than Q1 (29.76%) in 2021. It is estimated that the incremental contribution of Bofen from January to February is limited, and the growth of laobaifen and Panama is relatively stable. Throughout the year, the blue and white series was the focus of development. In the past, the blue and white series had a bright performance and strong actual sales. The follow-up is still an important support for the national expansion and the large volume of the blue and white series. In the 21st year, the revival version of green 30 focused on market cultivation and performed relatively stably. In the 22nd year, the company will focus on the revival version to maintain the product price system and promote high-end products. Bofen focuses on reducing and controlling goods throughout the year. It is expected that the supply will still be in short supply during the year. In addition, Zhuyeqing focuses on health care brands, and will also increase its development in the future.
The pace of nationalization is firm, and the markets outside the province continue to expand. In terms of subregions, the Spring Festival collection in Shanxi, Shandong, Beijing, Inner Mongolia, Henan and other old base markets is estimated to maintain a steady growth, and the growth in emerging and strategic markets is more obvious. In the past 21 years, the proportion of market revenue outside the province has been higher than that in the province. There are 28 markets with a scale of more than 100 million yuan, and the number of controllable terminal outlets has reached more than 1 million. The revenue growth of the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta markets is more than 50%. The old base markets such as Henan, Beijing, Tianjin, Inner Mongolia and ancient China have maintained steady growth. With the continuation of the process of nationalization in the past 22 years, the market south of the Yangtze River is expected to maintain high growth. The company has a strong executive force and younger marketing team, leading the ability of channel operation and market control, and the 22-year nationwide layout is expected to be further deepened.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: the net profit forecast for 202123 is maintained at 5.51/75.0/9.65 billion yuan, the corresponding EPS is 4.52/6.15/7.91 yuan, and the corresponding P / E of the current stock price is 61 / 45 / 35 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the growth of blue and white series is less than expected, and the market expansion outside the province is less than expected.
