\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 369 Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) )
Event: Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) released the main operating data from January to February 2022. According to the preliminary calculation, the total operating revenue from January to February was about 2.45 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 25%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was about 940 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 26%.
The Spring Festival in 2022 has a successful start. 1) From January to February, the total revenue increased by 25% year-on-year, in line with market expectations. According to channel feedback, the Spring Festival in Jiangsu market in the past 22 years was less affected by the epidemic, and the company’s dynamic sales showed a good performance. Before the Spring Festival, the payment collection in Nanjing and other core markets basically completed 50% of the annual task, the inventory level was low, and the dealers had sufficient motivation and confidence to make payment. In terms of products, it is estimated that special a + products will maintain a high growth and further increase their proportion (the revenue of special a + products will account for about 60% / 65% respectively in 2020 / 2021). The increment of the fourth opening of the national margin is relatively obvious and the price is stable. After the price increase in 21 years, the actual transaction price is about 450460 yuan, and the channel profit has been thickened. At present, the upgrading iteration is relatively smooth. V3 is taken as a key input single product, The actual transaction price is about 650 yuan, and the estimated increase is also obvious under the low base. 2) It is estimated that the return to parent net interest rate from January to February is 38.37%, an increase of 4.76pct compared with 21q1 (33.61%). Under the optimization of product upgrading, the profitability continues to rise.
The main line of product structure upgrading remained unchanged throughout the year. Over the past 21 years, the company has focused on the development of V series, V9 positioning high-end and focusing on leading the brand image. The company has also devoted more resources to the cultivation of core consumers. At the end of December 21, the company established V99 alliance, established Southern Jiangsu with high consumption level as the strategic sector, and also arranged around the surrounding first tier cities outside the province. V3 occupies the price band of 600700 yuan with the most growth potential in the province, It is expected to continue to increase in volume. In the first three quarters of 21 years, the revenue of V series increased by 120% year-on-year, accounting for about 10% of Guoyuan brand. It is expected to further improve in 22 years. Among the K series, the status of four times high-end large single products is stable. Considering the price increase factor, it is expected to realize the simultaneous increase of volume and price in 22 years. The Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) series is mainly D20 / d30, with clear positioning and the development of wedding banquet market. From the perspective of 21 years, the cultivation effect is also remarkable.
The market momentum in the province continues, and the market share is expected to further increase. The company has developed a basic market for the company, and the brand strength and product strength of the company are strong. The superposition of Jiangsu as a major Baijiu consumption province has provided the excellent base market for the company. As a real estate leader, the company has relatively stable demand and strong ability to resist risks. At present, the company accounts for about 15% of the city in the province, and there is still much room for improvement. From 2021, the growth momentum of base Market Huai’an and high growth benchmark Xuzhou market remains unchanged. The revenue growth rate in the first three quarters reached 20% / 52% respectively, and the growth rate of Southern Jiangsu and central Jiangsu maintained 30% + respectively. The potential of advantageous markets will continue, and weak markets such as southern Jiangsu are expected to further penetrate, promoting more balanced development in the province, and the markets outside the province will gradually break through around the surrounding sectors.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: maintain the net profit forecast of 202123 as 20.28/24.53/2.947 billion, corresponding to EPS of 1.62/1.96/2.35 yuan, and the corresponding P / E of the current stock price as 29 / 24 / 20 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the sales of V series and Sikai are less than expected, and the market competition in the province is intensified.
