\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 179 Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) )
Core view
Q4 revenue accelerated and the performance was under pressure in the short term. In 2021, the annual revenue was 4.313 billion yuan (+ 19%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 284 million yuan (+ 29%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 257 million yuan (+ 4%). In the fourth quarter, the single quarter revenue was 1.349 billion yuan (+ 21%), the net profit attributable to the parent was 64 million yuan (- 22%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent was 67 million yuan (- 22%). The company’s revenue returned to high growth and the profit was under pressure in the short term.
In 2021q4, the company’s revenue growth exceeded the industry growth by 29pct. In 2021q4, the automobile output was 7.53 million, a year-on-year decrease of 7%, the sales volume was 7.65 million, a year-on-year decrease of 7%, and the revenue growth of Xinquan 21q4 was 21%, surpassing the industry 29pct.
Affected by the price rise of raw materials, Q4 gross profit margin is under pressure. The gross profit margin of the company in 2021 was 21.3%, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.7pct, and the net profit margin was 6.2%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.8pct. In the quarter of splitting orders, the gross profit margin of 2021q4 was 20.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6pct, and the net profit margin was 4.4%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6pct. The decline of Q4 gross profit margin is mainly affected by the rise in the price of raw materials.
During this period, the cost rate was stable and the R & D investment continued. In 2021, the company’s four fee rates were 14.5%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.2pct, of which the rates of sales / management / R & D / financial expenses were 4.4 / 4.6 / 4.9 / 0.6% respectively, with a year-on-year change of – 0.2 / + 0.2 / + 0.8 / – 0.6pct. In the quarter of splitting orders, the rate of 2021q4 is 15.0%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7pct, of which the rate of sales / management / R & D / financial expenses is 4.6 / 4.5 / 5.6 / 0.2% respectively, with a year-on-year change of + 0.1 / + 0.1 / + 2.5 / – 1.0pct. In 2021, the company invested 225 million yuan in R & D (year-on-year + 49%), 76 million yuan in Q4 (year-on-year increase of 118%), and continued to invest in R & D.
There is a vast space for automobile interior decoration. The company’s products have become the benchmark of the industry and have great growth potential. At present, the market scale of interior parts (except seats) in China’s automobile industry is about 120 billion yuan, and the global automobile market is about 380 billion yuan. With strong technical strength and experience, the company’s core product automotive dashboard has become an industry benchmark. The company’s revenue in 2021 was 4.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25%, with great growth potential.
Risk tip: there is a risk of decline in industry sales, and the expansion of new customers does not meet the expected risk.
Investment suggestion: lower the profit forecast and maintain the “buy” rating. Taking into account the impact of the rise in the price of raw materials, we lowered our profit forecast for 22 / 23 / 24. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 477 / 700 / 839 million in 22 / 23 / 24 (the previous forecast was RMB 570 / 750 million in 22 / 23), and the corresponding EPS will be RMB 1.27/1.87/2.24. The company has gradually cut into joint venture customers, international well-known brand electric vehicle enterprises and some new force car manufacturing enterprises. The passenger car business has a large growth space. Considering the smooth expansion of new customers, the reasonable valuation range of the company has been raised to 47-56 yuan (the previous reasonable valuation range was 45.3-52.9 yuan), corresponding to 25-30x PE in 23 years, maintaining the “buy” rating.
