\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 899 Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) )
Matters:
Company announcement: on March 9, 2022, the company announced the performance express of 2021, with a total operating revenue of 17.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.0%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 1.52 billion yuan, an increase of 20.9%.
Guoxin textile and clothing view: 1) annual revenue + 34%, performance + 21%, performance growth in the fourth quarter of a single year increased by 16p p.； 2) At the beginning of the new five-year plan, the growth target of traditional business is maintained at 10% - 15%, and the operation strength of new business is enhanced; 3) Investment suggestion: in 2021, under the influence of double reduction, epidemic situation and high base, the company's revenue and performance will still achieve rapid growth. The company's traditional business industry has sufficient growth space, the smooth promotion of high-end products, deep channel barriers and continuous improvement; The new business operation capacity has been improved and the development momentum is strong. We maintain the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1.52/18.3/2.19 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 20.9% / 20.7% / 19.4% and EPS of RMB 1.64/1.98/2.36 respectively. The current share price corresponds to PE of 33.1x/27.4x/22.9x, with a reasonable valuation of RMB 78-80 (corresponding to 2023pe33-34x), maintaining the "buy" rating. 4) Risk tip: the epidemic situation is repeated, the downstream demand is less than expected, the systematic risk of the market, and the international political and economic risk. 0）
Comments:
Performance in 2021: annual revenue + 34%, performance + 21%, and the growth rate of performance in the fourth quarter was 16p p.
The steady growth of traditional business and the rapid development of new business promoted the year-on-year growth of revenue by 34% and performance by 21%. The company's total operating revenue was 17.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.0%, 16.1p faster than that in 2020 p. The return to the track of rapid growth is mainly due to the steady growth of the company's traditional core business, the rapid growth of new business office direct selling Chenguang kelipu and Jiumu sundry agency, a large retail store; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.52 billion yuan, an increase of 20.9% at the same time.
In the fourth quarter alone, revenue increased by 18.6% year-on-year; The performance increased by 16.9% year-on-year and accelerated by 16.4p month on month p.。 The company's revenue in the fourth quarter of 2021 was 5.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.6%, 0.4p faster than the year-on-year growth in the third quarter of 2021 p.； The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 400 million, with a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, 16.4p faster than the year-on-year growth in the third quarter of 2021 p.
Business Review and Outlook: at the beginning of the new five-year plan, the traditional business maintained the growth target of 10% - 15%, and the new business grew strongly
In 2021, under the combined influence of the epidemic and "double reduction", the company still achieved a stable return of income and performance. In the opening year of the new five-year strategy, the company's traditional business has been driven by high-end products and channel transformation, and the new business model has a clear trend of running through and upgrading. Specifically:
In terms of traditional business, the company maintains a medium-term growth target of 10% - 15%. Despite the impact of double reduction policy and epidemic situation, China's consumption upgrading will strongly promote the demand for medium and high-end stationery, and the market scale of stationery industry still has more room for growth. In 2021, the company continued to reform its products and channels, and its business strength was enhanced. On the product side, the company combines MBS method to optimize new product development, shorten product development cycle, develop high-end new products and increase the proportion of high-quality cultural and creative products; On the channel side, the company has deep channel barriers and continues to upgrade and Reform in line with the needs of consumers, changing from wholesalers to brand retail service providers, adjusting product structure and helping terminal sales; Traditional businesses are expected to maintain steady growth in the medium and long term.
In terms of retail stores, Jiumu sundries agency has grown rapidly, driving the upgrading of Chenguang brand and products. In June 2021, Chenguang living hall (of Jiumu sundries Club) will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, and Jiumu sundries club will become the bridgehead of Chenguang brand and product upgrading. In the first three quarters of 2021, Chenguang living hall (including Jiumu sundries agency) achieved an operating revenue of 770 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 79.4%, of which Jiumu sundries agency achieved an operating revenue of 700 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 93.4%. By the end of September 2021, there were 496 large retail stores in China, including 60 Chenguang life hall and 436 Jiumu sundries Club (299 directly operated and 137 franchised). In 2022, Jiumu sundries club plans to maintain more than 100 stores.
In terms of klip, the improvement trend of operating capacity and profit margin is clear, and it is expected to achieve strong growth. With the continuous growth of business, the company adopts new technical means to improve efficiency. In the assessment of key customers; In terms of procurement, with the increase of procurement depth, the bargaining power of key categories has also improved. In the first three quarters of 2021, the operating revenue of Chenguang kelipu was 4.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.3%.
Investment suggestion: strong growth in revenue and performance, optimistic about medium-term high-quality growth
In 2021, under the influence of double reduction, epidemic situation and high base, the company still achieved rapid growth in revenue and performance. The company's traditional business industry has sufficient growth space, the smooth promotion of high-end products, deep channel barriers and continuous improvement; The new business operation capacity has been improved and the development momentum is strong. The company's share price is expected to maintain a year-on-year growth of RMB 349.3 billion, and the corresponding net profit is expected to be RMB 2021-3x.2/21, respectively, with a year-on-year growth of RMB 2021-3x.2%, which corresponds to the company's "e31-3x.3/2021.8 billion, and the corresponding net profit is expected to be RMB 2021-3x.2/202128%, respectively.
Risk tips
The epidemic situation is repeated, the downstream demand is less than expected, the systemic risk of the market and the international political and economic risk.
