\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 369 Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) )
Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) announce the business announcement from January to February of 22. After preliminary accounting, from January to February 2022, the company is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of about 2.45 billion yuan, an increase of about 25% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is expected to be about 940 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 26%.
Key points supporting rating
From January to February 2022, the company’s revenue and net profit increased by 25% and 26% respectively year-on-year, successfully achieving the goal of a good start. (1) Benefiting from the secondary high-end capacity expansion bonus in Jiangsu Province, the company continues to optimize the product structure, and the epidemic situation is well controlled during the Spring Festival. It is expected that the company’s products with more than 300 yuan in the first quarter of 2022 will continue the high growth rate of more than 30% in 2021, of which the growth rate of V series with more than 600 yuan is faster. In terms of revenue share, Guoyuan series accounts for more than 80%, of which V series accounts for about 10%. (2) In the short term, Kaixi is still the main source of sales increment, especially Sikai, which is the largest single product of the company at this stage. After the successful replacement in the first half of 21 years, the brand potential continues to improve. The current transaction price is about 460 yuan, and we continue to enjoy the upgrading of business demand in the province. (3) V3 has a price band of 600700 yuan, enjoys the good consumer base formed by the four development projects in the province, and will undertake further consumption upgrading in the province.
The implementation path of the $14.5 billion target is clear, with a layout in terms of capacity expansion, product upgrading and regional expansion, focusing on new leaps of high quality and cohesion. (1) In terms of production capacity, the company recently announced that it would invest 9.08 billion yuan in the project of intelligent brewing and storage center in the South plant. After the completion of the project, the annual production capacity of high-quality Luzhou flavor original wine will be 18000 tons and that of high-quality elegant Maotai flavor original wine will be 20000 tons, laying the foundation for the volume of V Series in the future. (2) In terms of products, the current Changshu Guorui Technology Co.Ltd(300600) yuan price belt products have a solid foundation in the province, basically realizing stable price, low inventory and fast moving sales. With the help of the solid foundation of Kaitie in the province, build V-series and realize the steady upgrading of product structure. According to the company’s plan, the proportion of V-series revenue will be increased to 20% at the end of the 14th five year plan. In addition, V9 layout 10002000 yuan price band to create elegant Maotai flavor series products, which may bring unexpected surprises. (3) In terms of regional layout, Huai’an, Nanjing and other advantageous markets continue to have high potential energy, and the company gives priority to filling in the weak market areas in the province. With the introduction of V series, the market share of previously weak areas such as southern Jiangsu is expected to continue to increase. The market outside the province is still in the cultivation period and is expected to blossom and bear fruit in key regions in the future. (4) The company is committed to improving the long-term benefit sharing mechanism with firm determination, and the incentive mechanism is expected to be continuously improved with sufficient endogenous power.
Valuation
Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) as one of the leading local wine producers in Jiangsu Province, it fully enjoys the local excellent consumption environment and steadily improves the product structure. It is estimated that the company’s EPS will be 1.57 yuan, 1.96 yuan and 2.42 yuan / share respectively from 21 to 23 years, and the corresponding PE will be 29.5x, 23.6x and 19.2x respectively. The company will be given a buy rating.
Main risks of rating
The province is squeezed by competitive products and the channel inventory is overstocked. Failed to successfully complete the goal planning
