\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 809 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) )
Events
On March 9, the company released the operation data from January to February 2022. During this period, the overall market sales were good, and the medium and high-end products such as Qinghua Fenjiu series achieved substantial growth; During the preliminary accounting period, the total revenue exceeded 7.4 billion yuan, an increase of more than 35% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company exceeded 2.7 billion yuan, an increase of more than 50% at the same time.
Business analysis
The operating data from January to February were in line with expectations, and the revival of blue and white was just at that time. According to the announcement, the company’s net profit margin continued to improve from January to February. We expect that the blue and white series will achieve an increase of about 50% + during the period, the waist old Baifen + Panama will increase by about 35% + and Bofen will control the volume and adjust the rhythm. The optimization of the overall company’s product structure has accelerated, the positioning of medium and high-end development is clear, and the feedback to the profit side shows a super elastic growth, which has successfully achieved a good start of the Spring Festival. However, even under the high volume increase of blue and white series, the price remains stable. At present, the channel feedback that the price of Qing 20 is about 370 ~ 380 yuan, and the price of Qing 30 revival version is about 860 yuan, which confirms the improvement of consumers’ awareness of the company’s brand power, and also shows that the company’s channel control is effective; In terms of inventory, the overall inventory of Bofen and Qinghua 20 channels remained benign.
Nationalization continues to advance, and the company is still a highly flexible differentiation target. At present, the company continues to deepen the “1357 + 10” market layout. We expect that the process of blue and white structure optimization in the province is relatively faster than that outside the province; East China and South China first realized the introduction of fragrance type through Bofen distribution. At present, the growth rate is relatively fast in the province, and the product structure optimization of subsequent incremental markets will gradually appear to the surface. In addition, the company also adjusted its channel expenses, increased its support for blue and white series and event marketing in markets outside the province, and increased the number of blue and white. Overall, we believe that after chairman yuan took office, the company is developing at a sound and fast pace from the perspectives of channels, markets and products.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We expect that the growth rate of the company’s revenue in 21-23 years will be 44% / 33% / 27% respectively, corresponding to a revenue of 201 / 267 / 33.9 billion yuan; The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was 79% / 42% / 33% respectively, corresponding to the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 5.5/78/10.3 billion; EPS is 4.52/6.40/8.48 yuan respectively, and the current share price corresponding to PE is 61 / 43 / 32 times respectively. As a fragrance leader, the brand potential of the company is expected to be released, and there is great potential for nationalization, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The risk of repeated epidemics, the risk that the nationalization is less than expected, the risk of macroeconomic downturn and the problem of food safety.
