\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 989 Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) )
Event: on March 9, the company released the annual report of 2021: in 2021, the operating revenue was 23.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.29%, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.95%, and the net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company was 7.336 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.33%.
Comments:
The volume and price rose together, the performance grew steadily, and the annual profitability reached a higher level. 2021q4 achieved an operating revenue of 7.104 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53.48%, a month on month increase of 24%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.752 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.11%, a month on month increase of 10.58%, and a deduction of non attributable net profit of 1.808 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.41% and a month on month increase of 9.08%. In terms of profitability, the gross profit margin in 2021 was 42.21%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.89pct, the net profit margin was 30.35%, a year-on-year increase of 1.32pct, and the roe was 25.33%, a year-on-year increase of 6.29pct. The gross profit margin of 2021q4 was 27.97%, a year-on-year decrease of 23.12pct, a month on month decrease of 14.76pct, and the net profit margin was 24.67%, a year-on-year decrease of 7.12pct, a month on month decrease of 2.99pct, roe of 5.88%, a year-on-year increase of 0.03pct and a month on month increase of 0.26pct. In terms of period expenses, the total period expense rate of the company in 2021 was 4.5%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.63pct. Among them, the sales expense ratio was 0.26%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.12pct, the management expense (including R & D expenses, comparable caliber) ratio was 3.13%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.74pct, the financial expense ratio was 1.11%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.77pct, the company maintained the “stable, long and excellent” operation of production, optimized production and enterprise operation and sales, and the expense ratio was further reduced during the period.
Technical optimization will further reduce unit consumption, and both volume and price will rise to hedge against the rise of raw materials. The company’s 2021 olefin segment achieved a revenue of 11.519 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 24.93%; The gross profit margin was 32.31%, with a year-on-year increase of -10.46pct. Due to the rise of product prices and sales volume, the company’s revenue scale increased, but due to the rise of raw coal price, the gross profit margin level was under pressure. In terms of production and marketing, the annual output of polyethylene and polypropylene of the company was 740700 tons and 625000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of + 6.60% and – 2.46%; The sales volume was 737900 tons and 624200 tons, with a year-on-year increase of + 7.54% and – 1.53%. In terms of price, the average price of polyethylene and polypropylene in the whole year was 732966 yuan / ton and 765718 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of + 17.93% and 9.86%. In terms of raw materials, the average price of gasification raw coal and power coal in the whole year was 661.57 yuan / ton and 473.64 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of + 91.24% and 91.11%. In the face of the sharp rise in coal prices, on the one hand, the company actively strengthened communication with the surrounding coal production suppliers in the three provinces and regions of Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia, and added 19 suppliers to ensure the supply of raw materials; On the other hand, it actively opened up new supply channels, negotiated the purchase of high calorific value coal from Xinjiang as a supplement to power coal, and established a new channel of “Xinjiang coal into Nanjing”. In terms of unit consumption, the company continued to reduce the unit consumption through technical optimization: the unit consumption of methanol in olefin plant 2 was further reduced by 0.033t/t to 2.852t/t; The unit consumption of raw coal of methanol plant 1 (5400 kcal coal) is 1.41 tons / ton, and that of raw coal of methanol plant 2 (5400 kcal coal) is 1.37 tons / ton, which is 0.07 tons / ton lower than that of the previous year and continues to maintain the low level of the industry. Optimistic about the profit elasticity of coal to olefin industry: on February 24, the national development and Reform Commission issued the notice on further improving the coal market price formation mechanism, which made it clear that the medium and long-term tax inclusive price of underground coal (q5500) in Qinhuangdao port is between 570 yuan / ton and 770 yuan / ton, Compared with the price range (550 yuan / ton – 850 yuan / ton) published in the work plan for the signing and performance of medium and long term coal contracts in 2022 (Exposure Draft) at the end of December last year, the cost of raw coal mined by the company is expected to decline, and the recent continuous rise of Crude Oil supports the olefin price. According to the practice, the downstream will gradually enter the relatively peak season of demand in March, and the profitability is expected to be further improved.
Coke prices remain high and capacity release is imminent. The company’s 2021 coking sector achieved a revenue of 9.336 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 24.93%; The gross profit margin was 32.31%, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.68pct; The coke output was 4.5459 million tons, a year-on-year increase of + 2.31%, and the sales volume was 4.5439 million tons, a year-on-year increase of + 18.42%. The annual average price of coke of the company was 196464 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 69.70%. In 2021, due to the continuous liquidation of old production capacity and the overall tight supply in the coke market, the largest rise in recent five years was ushered in, and the annual price was the highest point in recent five years. The main works of the company’s 3 million T / a coking polygeneration project have been completed, and it is expected to gradually convert to fixed assets and contribute to the capacity increment within the year. At that time, the company’s total coke capacity will increase from 4 million T / A to 7 million T / A.
The leading coal chemical industry has entered the stage of accelerated growth. The 500000 T / a coal to olefin and 500000 T / a C2-C5 comprehensive utilization to olefin projects in Ningdong phase III have been steadily promoted, including 250000 T / a EVA unit. The methanol and olefin project is planned to be completed by the end of 2022, and the EVA unit will be completed and put into operation in 2023; The 500000 ton coal to olefin project of Ningdong phase IV is being publicized for environmental impact assessment. The 4 million T / a coal to olefin project in Inner Mongolia is a modern coal chemical project planned by the state and extended and supplemented by the autonomous region. It is a key demonstration project in the four modern coal chemical industry demonstration areas planned and arranged in the layout plan for innovative development of modern coal chemical industry issued by the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of industry and information technology during the 13th five year plan. At present, it has been approved by Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) municipal government, It is agreed to use the olefin index in the overall plan of Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) city to build a national modern coal chemical industry demonstration zone. At present, the company is accelerating the approval of environmental impact assessment.
Under the goal of “double carbon”, the national Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) electrolytic hydrogen storage and application demonstration project has been actively promoted. As a national Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) electrolytic hydrogen storage and application demonstration project, the “green hydrogen” project was completed by the end of the first quarter of 2022, and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation is under construction. Layout carbon neutralization and improve the clean and efficient utilization of coal: the project adopts a high-efficiency alkaline electrolytic cell hydrogen production equipment with a single capacity of 1000 standard m3 / h, and is equipped with corresponding hydrogen compression and storage equipment, which can achieve an annual output of 240 million standard m3 “green hydrogen” and 120 million standard m3 “green oxygen”, and can increase and reduce the consumption of coal resources by about 380000 tons, increase and reduce the annual carbon dioxide emission by about 660000 tons In, 5% of the total carbon emission from chemical plants was reduced to realize clean and efficient utilization of coal. Strive to lead carbon neutralization, and the development of the demonstration project can be expected: the company uses “green hydrogen” to directly synthesize gas to produce methanol, improve the utilization efficiency of raw coal, “green oxygen” is used to replace oxygen in air separation unit, reduce coal consumption, and coal chemical industry is coupled with “green hydrogen” and “green oxygen”, with obvious emission reduction and efficiency increase. In the follow-up, the company will produce green hydrogen at a growth rate of 300 million standard cubic meters / year, and will increase and reduce 5% of the total carbon emission of chemical plants every year. At the same time, the company can realize sustainable income from this project under the background of carbon neutralization. As the leader of coal chemical industry and “green hydrogen”, the performance is expected to grow steadily, and strive to take the lead in realizing enterprise carbon neutralization in 20 years and reach a leading position in the industry.
Risk tips: price fluctuation of products and raw materials, project progress not meeting expectations, safety and environmental protection factors.
Profit forecast: according to the production progress of the company’s new projects, we adjust the company’s profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 8.079 billion yuan (formerly 8.008 billion yuan), 10.975 billion yuan (formerly 12.132 billion yuan) and 21.399 billion yuan (newly added) respectively, maintaining the buy rating.
