\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 58 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) )
Event: the company issued the announcement of performance increase in 2021, and it is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 66.2 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of about 15%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 23.35 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 17%. Among them, 21q4 is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 16.5 billion yuan, an increase of about 11% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 6.02 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 11%.
21q4 performed steadily and ended smoothly in 21 years. According to the performance pre increase announcement, the company’s 21q4 is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 16.5 billion yuan, an increase of about 11% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.02 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 11%, which was basically the same as that in 21q3. In 2021, the annual operating revenue is expected to reach 66.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 15%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is 23.35 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 17.0%. It will end smoothly in 2021.
The brand power of 1000 yuan price belt remains the same, and the channel reform continues to advance. From the product side, 1) the brand power of the company in the 1000 yuan price band is still strong, which is a strong support for the steady performance of the company. In the context of repeated epidemic and relatively weak consumption, the demand for high-end Baijiu is stronger, and the brand strength of the company is still in the price band of 1000 yuan. In the past 21 years, the price of the company’s products was raised, and although the channel profit was under pressure in the short term, the channel payment and goods preparation were promoted normally during the Spring Festival, and the dynamic sales remained stable. According to channel feedback, at present, the progress of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) payment collection is more than 40%, maintaining a normal rhythm, the performance is stable in the peak season of the Spring Festival, and the certainty of 22q1 performance growth is high. 2) The 22-year classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) signing rhythm has slowed down, and subsequent price support and consumer cultivation are expected to gradually bear fruit. On the channel side, after the recent personnel change, the company has strategically paid more attention to consumer cultivation and brand construction in the past 22 years. At the same time, it continues to promote digital construction and refined channel management, and the channel effectiveness of the company is expected to be improved.
Investment suggestion: under the repressive factors such as the worry about the change of management and the lower than expected pace of the price increase of puwu, the company’s share price has been adjusted. At present, the company corresponds to 23xpe for 22 years, which is obviously underestimated. In view of the improvement of the company’s long-term brand strength and the large-scale volume of 1000 yuan price band, we are optimistic about the company’s performance expectation and valuation repair. According to the company’s performance forecast, we slightly adjusted the company’s profit forecast: from 2021 to 2023, the operating revenue was 66.109/75.501/85.341 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 15.3% / 14.2% / 13.0%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 23.346/27.40/30.964 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 17.0% / 15.8% / 14.5%. The corresponding EPS is 6.01/6.97/7.98 yuan respectively, maintaining the company’s “Buy-A” rating.
Risk warning: repeated outbreaks in some areas; The price trend is less than expected; The promotion of new products is less than expected; Economic fundamentals affect Baijiu consumption: food safety problems and so on.
