\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 58 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) )
The revenue performance in 2021 was in line with expectations, and the volume and price of puwu increased steadily. On the evening of March 9, the company issued a performance forecast. After preliminary accounting, the company is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of about 66.2 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of about 15% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be about 23.35 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 17%. According to this calculation, 2021q4 company is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of about 16.48 billion yuan, an increase of about 11.1% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be about 6.02 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.4%. In 2021, the volume and price of the company’s large single product puwu increased steadily, the classic payment collection was about 2000 tons, contributing to the net increment, and the annual revenue performance was in line with expectations.
The progress of payment collection and delivery is reasonable, the rigid demand still exists, the price remains stable month on month, the inventory of puwu is low, and the classic inventory pressure is improved. According to the feedback of channel research, dealers generally have more than 40% of the payment collection progress and about 35% of the delivery progress. The replenishment rhythm after the general five Festival is consistent with that in the same period, and the rigid demand is still confirmed. Puwu and classic wholesale prices remained stable on a month on month basis. The inventory of puwu was at a low level on a month on month basis. The inventory of local dealers was no more than 15 days, and the inventory of classic in some regions was about 2 months, which was lower than that in 2021.
Investment suggestions: the improvement of management is expected to accelerate, the fundamentals are highly likely to improve month on month, the bottom reversal is expected, and the layout is cost-effective. According to the channel research feedback, puwu reflects the rigid demand in all regional markets, the brand image is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, the status of large single products is difficult to shake in the short term, and the real bottle opening rate ranks first in the 1000 yuan price band. The short-term price performance and insufficient channel profits are caused by the incomplete digestion of low-cost inventory in the early stage, which brings short-term pain to the price increase, and the terminal demand is basically unaffected. In 2022, it is expected that the volume of puwu will increase steadily, the factory price will increase more than that in 2021, and the income is expected to accelerate growth; The amount of classic has not been determined yet. It has been cultivated for more than a year, and the dynamic sales is expected to accelerate. The management problems have entered the improvement period, and the follow-up efforts will focus on strengthening market control. The general five volume and price performance, classic dynamic sales and consumer acceptance are expected to be significantly improved. We expect the company’s EPS to be 6.23/7.73/9.35 yuan from 2021 to 2023. The current valuation is cost-effective and maintains the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the expansion of 1000 yuan price band is less than expected, and the competition is intensified; Classic cultivation and dynamic sales are not as expected; Implementation of consumption tax reform
