\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 369 Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) )
Core conclusion
The Spring Festival has a strong demand in the province, making a good start and laying the foundation for the whole year. On the evening of March 9, the company announced that during the Spring Festival, the product sales growth showed a bright performance and successfully achieved a “good start”. After preliminary accounting, from January to February 2022, the company achieved a total operating revenue of about 2.45 billion yuan, an increase of about 25% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 940 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 26%. According to the channel survey and feedback, there is a strong demand for mobile sales in the Spring Festival in the province, and the delivery progress of dealers in the first quarter is generally more than 40%. Dealers outside the province pay more attention to benign development. It is estimated that the overall delivery progress of 2022q1 company is about 37%, which is basically the same rhythm compared with the same period. The growth rate in the first quarter is expected to be higher than the planned growth rate of the whole year, laying a good foundation for a good start.
Guoyuan brand continues to grow rapidly, and the construction outside the province is strengthened for sound development. According to the channel research feedback, during the Spring Festival, the growth rate of Guoyuan brand is higher than the average, and the old card position is sub high-end. It fully enjoys the bonus of upgrading and capacity expansion, and its performance continues to shine. The growth rate of V series is high, the introduction of V9 Business Edition is smooth, and the prices of V3 regions are slightly different. It is expected to control the goods in an orderly manner and maintain a stable price. Channel feedback this year, the company began to introduce the remote code scanning system, strictly control the remote code scanning rate of markets outside the province, effectively reduce the dumping of goods outside the province, the demand in the province is stronger during the Spring Festival, and the outside of the province returns to benign development.
Investment suggestion: in 2022, we will continue to focus on the two main lines of secondary high-end and development outside the province, so as to achieve rapid and high-quality development. In 2023, we are expected to achieve the goal of 10 billion yuan ahead of schedule. According to the feedback of channel research, the company will further refine the division of office teams this year, with Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Guoyuan brands being responsible separately, improve the imbalance of brand development caused by resource inclination, and help Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Guoyuan brands grow together. Based on the pursuit of market share, V series has strengthened inventory control and price maintenance month on month, and conducted corresponding tasting and cultivation activities for the target customer group, which is in line with the development policy of seeking speed in the best way. The company will continue to pay more attention to the development outside the province, emphasize sustainable development, break through the old development system from the perspective of real dynamic sales, and strictly investigate the fleeing of goods into the province. Refinement and sinking in the province, structural improvement, large development space outside the province, superimposed equity incentive is expected to be launched, and the company is expected to better complete the task. We expect the company’s EPS to be 1.56/1.98/2.44 yuan from 2021 to 2023, maintaining the “buy” rating, with a target price of 69 yuan, corresponding to 35 times PE in 2022.
Risk warning: intensified competition in the province; The development outside the province is less than expected; The cultivation of V series is not as expected
