\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 129 Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) )
Event overview
The company released the annual performance express in 2021, and achieved an operating revenue of 41.025 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 115.28%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.020 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 269.14%; The net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company after deducting non recurring profits and losses was RMB 3.859 billion, a year-on-year increase of 305.10%.
Analysis and judgment:
High performance growth, product structure optimization and upgrading
According to the company’s announcement, the performance is in the median of the forecast. In 2021, the company’s revenue was 41.025 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 115.28%, and the net profit attributable to the owner of the parent company was 4.020 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 269.14%. In 2021, the net profit attributable to the owner of the parent company after deducting non recurring profits and losses was 3.859 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 305.10%. Quarterly, Q4 achieved an operating revenue of 11.936 billion yuan in a single quarter, an increase of 110.14% year-on-year and 4.29% month on month. Q4 achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of RMB 1.258 billion in a single quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 417.70% and a month on month decrease of 1.87%. Q4 single quarter net interest rate reached 10.54%, up 4.45 percentage points year-on-year. In 2021, the company continued to increase the optimization and upgrading of product structure, and the production capacity of photovoltaic 210 products accelerated; At the same time, through technological innovation and process progress, the company has improved the production efficiency of single furnace, and the silicon material consumption rate of unit product has decreased significantly year-on-year. Through the improvement of thin line and thin sheet process, the silicon wafer yield and product a rate have increased significantly, and the gross profit of unit product has been improved to a great extent; On the other hand, facing the price fluctuation of polysilicon raw materials, the company has reasonably controlled the inventory through long-term good supply chain cooperation to ensure the production and operation of the company.
Accelerated demonstration of semiconductor materials business and flexible cooperation between upstream and downstream
Wafer factories continue to increase production capacity and capital supply in the world. According to semi data, the global semiconductor silicon wafer shipment area is expected to reach 14 billion square inches in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 13.9%. In the next three years, the semiconductor silicon wafer shipment is expected to continue to reach a new high year by year. At present, the global semiconductor silicon wafer is mainly monopolized by foreign companies. In particular, the localization rate of 12 inch silicon wafer is low, and there is a huge space for domestic substitution. The company’s semiconductor materials business has accelerated technology research and development and customer certification, rapid product upgrading, accelerated the layout of new products, and the production and sales scale has increased significantly year-on-year. By the end of the third quarter of 2021, the company has formed a monthly production capacity of 650000 pieces of 8 inches and 100000 pieces of 12 inches. While accelerating the capacity expansion of Jiangsu large silicon wafer project, the company plans to start the production expansion of Tianjin factory. At present, the second phase of the 8-12 inch large silicon wafer project is started ahead of schedule to accelerate capacity expansion. The company promoted the production mode of industrial 4.0 and flexible manufacturing in the operation processes and scenarios of various industrial sectors, and the per capita labor productivity increased significantly to more than 10 million yuan / person / year. The quality and consistency of products have been continuously improved, the consumption of raw materials and auxiliary materials has been effectively improved, and the operation cost of the factory has been continuously reduced. At the same time, we have cooperated with upstream and downstream customers to establish a flexible cooperation mode, reduce transaction costs and improve the competitiveness of ourselves and customers.
Investment advice
Under the new system and mechanism, the company has improved its operation quality and efficiency, continued to improve its competitiveness, high future performance and growth prospects. The company adjusted its profit forecast for 20222023. The revenue in 20222023 was adjusted from 63.225 billion yuan and 70.808 billion yuan to 55.245 billion yuan and 66.913 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was adjusted from 5.490 billion yuan and 6.455 billion yuan to 5.216 billion yuan and 6.310 billion yuan respectively, and EPS was adjusted from 170 million yuan and 2.00 yuan is adjusted to 1.61 yuan and 1.95 yuan. From 2022 to 2023, it corresponds to the closing price of 47.36 yuan / share on March 10, 2022, and PE is 29 / 24 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The demand of semiconductor market is not as expected, the competition in semiconductor silicon wafer industry is intensified, systemic risks, etc.
