Viewpoint: according to the latest PMI data, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still anti pumping, and the downward pressure is still large. However, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole maintained a good foundation. With the inflation peaking expectation strengthened and the RRR reduction expectation landed, the expectation of monetary easing increased again, bringing an overall boost to the market. Under the expectation of monetary and credit easing in the coming year, the market is also expected to gradually open a good trend. In the short term, near the end of the year, the market wait-and-see mood is improved, and the funds are also seeking new investment hotspots in the coming year. Without a continuous hot plate, the market as a whole maintains a structural market. However, with the opening of the monetary easing cycle, the overall support and boost of the market remain the same. More consolidation and retreat are still washing dishes. It is suggested to bargain hunting and bargain hunting, and the market in the next year and the first quarter of the next year.
Today, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened slightly lower and launched an upward offensive after the opening. Led by the securities sector, the index rose rapidly, followed by other sectors. The market almost generally rose, boosting the index. On the disk, the media sector rose sharply, led by the rise of national defense and military industry, electronics, beauty care, etc., while most other sectors rose, and only a few sectors such as transportation and coal fell slightly.
In the morning, the momentum of northward capital entering A-Shares was fierce. After opening for one and a half hours, the net inflow had exceeded 7 billion. Heavyweights boosted the index one after another. In the past three days, the continuous inflow of funds from the North has boosted confidence in the market. Obviously, the impact of the previous crackdown on foreign investment has been rapidly weakened. Back on the floor, not only the continuous inflow of foreign capital, but also the transaction between the two cities has ushered in a historic moment. As of December 29, the total turnover of A-Shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets during the year reached 255.1 trillion yuan, exceeding the peak of 254.6 trillion yuan in 2015, a record high. During the year, there were 147 trading days, with a single day turnover of more than trillion yuan, accounting for more than 60% of the total trading days. Especially in the second half of the year, the daily turnover of trillion yuan became the norm.
It can be seen that whether foreign investors are optimistic about China or bank deposits move, the equity market will become the main concentration of residents’ wealth in the future. With the continuous improvement of capital market laws and regulations, the fund and stock market may usher in more residents’ participation and intervention, and continue to promote the activity of the stock market and fund market. With the continuous decline of overall incremental funds, the overall good trend of the stock market may gradually open.
Recently, the market once adjusted, which not only reflected the falling demand after the previous continuous rise, but also reflected the escalation of capital wait-and-see sentiment near the end of the year. However, with the start of the monetary easing cycle, the overall market boost trend has begun. In the process of callback, it is also a good time for fund position adjustment, stock exchange and overall latency.
Therefore, with the support of fundamentals and the boost of liquidity, we are still optimistic about the market in the next year and the first quarter of the next year. There is no need to worry too much about the short-term return step. Under the support of steady growth and the opening of the easing cycle, the market as a whole still has the basis of support and boost. The callback as a whole can be regarded as a washing dish, and bargain hunting can still be considered for configuration. In terms of specific opportunities, it is suggested to explore from three angles: first, the “steady growth” or phased main line from the policy perspective, and the involved sectors can track building materials, construction machinery, food and beverage and household appliances; Secondly, it can also be superimposed with varieties with high attention to funds in the north, such as financial and other value blue chips, in which it can focus on the securities sector with undervalued value and good performance; Third, science and technology and new energy are mainly varieties with relatively uncertain growth under the downward pressure of the economy.
(Jufeng Finance)
