Key investment points
Event: on December 29, in order to implement the 14th five year plan for national economic and social development of the people’s Republic of China and the outline of long-term objectives for 2035 and improve the quality and efficiency of the development of raw material industry, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of science and technology and the Ministry of natural resources jointly issued the 14th five year plan for the development of raw material industry (hereinafter referred to as the plan). The plan sets specific goals from five perspectives: the continuous improvement of high-end supply level, the continuous improvement of structural rationalization level, the significant improvement of green development level, the prominent effect of industrial digital transformation and a more solid foundation for system security.
comment:
The supply of high-end rare earth is the most beneficial. The plan proposes that during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the quality stability, reliability and applicability of advanced basic materials and high-end products will be significantly improved, some cutting-edge new material varieties will realize mass production and typical application, and break through a number of key basic materials in key strategic areas. It is clear that the R & D investment intensity in key industries should reach more than 1.5%. The field of rare earth is frequently mentioned. The key technologies to be tackled in the future include green and efficient mining of ion adsorption rare earth minerals, efficient utilization of associated resources of rare earth polymetallic minerals, selective accurate infiltration technology of high-performance rare earth permanent magnet materials, industrial application of balanced utilization technology of high abundance rare earth elements, etc; Key breakthrough varieties include ultra-high purity rare earth metals and compounds, high-performance rare earth magnetic materials, etc. Relevant rare earth varieties are expected to continue to benefit.
Rare earth group will become bigger and stronger. The plan emphasizes to expand and strengthen leading enterprises, adhere to the combination of market leadership and government promotion, support enterprises to accelerate cross regional and cross ownership mergers and acquisitions, and improve industrial concentration. Clearly strengthen and expand rare earth enterprise groups, encourage rare metal enterprises to accelerate integration, and strengthen the collaborative linkage between rare earth permanent magnet materials for driving motors of new energy vehicles and upstream and downstream. The concentration of rare earth industry may increase significantly in the future.
The aluminum industry strictly controls production capacity and optimizes costs. The plan specifies to strictly control the new production capacity, implement the relevant policies on capacity replacement of electrolytic aluminum industry, prevent the blind and disorderly development of alumina, and the new, reconstruction and expansion projects must meet the advanced value of energy consumption quota standard and ultra-low emission value of pollutants. From the perspective of optimizing the layout of new production capacity, the coastal areas will orderly arrange alumina and other projects utilizing overseas resources, and promote the transfer of the layout of electrolytic aluminum industry from “coal power aluminum” to “clean energy such as hydropower and wind power aluminum”, which is conducive to improving the cost of electrolytic aluminum.
To cultivate “little giants”, the titanium industry chain deserves attention. The plan emphasizes the cultivation of a number of specialized and new “little giant” enterprises and single champion enterprises in manufacturing industry. At the same time, it is clear that a number of key materials such as superalloys, aviation light alloy materials and targets will be conquered around key application fields such as large aircraft and aeroengines. The leader of titanium industry chain mainly focuses on the layout of new materials in aerospace and other fields, which deserves attention in the future.
Investment suggestion: the concentration of rare earth industry may continue to increase in the future, and new energy vehicles are expected to reshape the demand pattern. Watch Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) , Yantai Zhenghai Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(300224) . The new capacity of the aluminum industry is strictly controlled, the cost structure continues to improve, and attention is paid to Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) and power investment and energy. Titanium industry chain leader layout aerospace and other related materials, optimistic about Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) .
Risk warning: the policy implementation is not as expected; Technological transformation is less than expected
(Huajin securities)
