Recently, the A-share market continued to shrink and adjust, and the popular track varieties generally performed poorly in the early stage. The consumption industry represented by Baijiu liquor has a significant adjustment in December 29th. The latest strategic research and judgment views from a number of first-line private placement show that although the short-term stock index performance is not satisfactory, most institutions are still optimistic about the large consumption sector.
large consumer sector is expected to be optimistic
“Since December, A-Shares have been developing first and then restraining. The differentiation pattern of individual shares has continued, and the overall performance of the large consumption sector is relatively strong.” Liu Tianjun, general manager of Taimin assets, said that at present, consumer stocks as a whole are still supported by many positive factors. First, as an important supporting direction of the economy, consumption is expected to introduce more supporting policies in the future; Second, from a fundamental point of view, despite the repeated impact of the epidemic, some leading companies still showed strong anti risk ability and achieved steady performance growth; Third, from the perspective of funds, near the end of the year, institutions begin to layout for next year, and consumer stocks will become the first choice for some funds.
Zhao Yuanyuan, investment director of Jianhong times, pointed out that with the approaching of the new year’s Day holiday, market transactions gradually tend to be light and show a certain risk aversion. Superimposed on the profit taking or position adjustment and stock exchange factors of institutions at the end of the year, stocks represented by the consumer industry will be favored by hedge funds.
Bao Xiaohui, chairman of Changli assets, said: “meeting relatives and friends before and after the Spring Festival and the preparation of new year goods at the family level have concentrated on increasing the demand for many consumer goods, and there may still be a certain seasonal trend in the follow-up traditional consumption sector.”
The chief research official Lei of Xingshi investment believes that the logic of brewing “spring agitation” in the A-share market has not changed, and good investment opportunities are expected to emerge in the large consumption sector. From top to bottom, the overall prosperity of the large consumer industry is marginally recovering, and there have been investment opportunities with significantly stronger fundamentals and reasonable valuation in the subdivided industries.
Liu Tianjun further pointed out that looking forward to the market performance before the Spring Festival, he remained optimistic about the large consumption sector. The Spring Festival is ahead of schedule. Manufacturers will appropriately move forward the time node when preparing goods for the Spring Festival. The “dynamic sales feedback” in the consumer market may bring more catalysts to relevant leading companies. In addition, the consumption data during the spring festival may exceed expectations.
multidimensional nuggets
For the structural opportunities in the field of large consumption, Bao Xiaohui said that the rotation rhythm of the A-share plate is fast in the near future. The consumer stock targets with “dynamic undervalued value and long-term high growth” will have a higher probability of obtaining better returns in the future. At the same time, we can focus on leading enterprises in the field of essential consumption.
Liu Tianjun said that although many leading stocks in the large consumption sector have increased greatly in the past few years, China has gradually become the largest consumer market in the world and is still firmly optimistic about investment opportunities in the large consumption field for a long time. From the perspective of segmentation, the current three key dimensions are: first, the Baijiu and cosmetic plates that benefit from the upgrading of consumption. Second, sports apparel, automobile and other industries with clear domestic trend; Third, the price of food, condiments and other sectors have been raised one after another.
In terms of the specific strategies of the large consumption sector before the Spring Festival, the current private placement institutions tend to retain a certain degree of flexibility. In terms of Xingshi investment, it is suggested that for individual stocks and industries that have increased greatly recently, it needs to be cautious to catch up in the short term. At this stage, the agency will pay more attention to “consumer assets with good supply and demand pattern and low price to book ratio”. “Based on the long-term value of assets and from the perspective of price to book ratio, consumer assets with low valuation of relevant price to book ratio may have higher cost performance.” Fang Lei said.
Zhao Yuanyuan suggested that in the market environment of “downward interest rate may raise risk preference”, she is relatively optimistic about decoration, home appliances and some Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) industries.
(China Securities Journal)
