As an investment weathervane, ETF has attracted much attention to the “big in and big out” of funds. Recently, the broad-based Index ETF ushered in a significant net inflow, with more than 44 billion yuan of funds “bottom reading” the main broad-based Index ETF.
Funds are usually placed inversely to ETFs. At the end of 2018, the index correction hit a “gold pit”, which was the peak of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50ETF buying. The market began to rise in 2019. What is the signal of the large-scale purchase of ETFs by funds this time?
Some fund managers said that the Shanghai 50 index has been undervalued, and institutional investors are laying out the cross-year market through ETF.
institutions “crazy buying” broad-based ETF
Data show that as of December 29, the net inflow of major broad-based index ETFs has exceeded 44 billion yuan in the past month, with Shanghai Stock Exchange 50ETF and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300etf being the most popular. Estimated by the average transaction price of the range, the net inflow of Huatai birui CSI 300etf is 13.663 billion yuan, the net inflow of Huaxia SSE 50ETF is 12.751 billion yuan, and the net inflow of Huaxia CSI 300etf and harvest CSI 300etf exceeds 3 billion yuan.
Funds continued to “buy and buy”, and the scale of market ETF continued to rise. As of December 29, the scale of Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange 50ETF exceeded 68.5 billion yuan and the fund share exceeded 21.2 billion, which is also the situation that Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange 50ETF once again had a share of more than 20 billion after December 2018.
From the historical data, funds tend to reverse the layout of ETFs. When the market rises rapidly, institutional investors usually choose to fall into the bag; When the index bottoms out periodically, ETFs tend to buy substantially net. At the end of 2018, the SSE 50 index continued to callback to the “golden pit” position, and the scale share of Huaxia SSE 50ETF also reached a phased high. In January 2019, the SSE 50 Index started to rise.
layout value blue chips
Since the broad-based indexes such as SSE 50 and CSI 300 are mostly institutional investors, their trend can better represent the views of institutional investors. For the continuous net subscription of SSE 50ETF, Lu Yayun, vice president of Huaxia Fund quantity investment department, said: “recently, there has been a significant net inflow of funds, indicating that investors’ willingness to value blue chip layout has increased. The short-term industry rotation can not be accurately judged. At the same time, the expectation of stable rebound of value blue chip enterprises has increased, and institutions use broad-based ETF to capture the periodic market.” He said that institutional funds have the characteristics of long term and large amount of funds. When configuring ETF, there are high requirements for the liquidity and scale of ETF. The wide-based ETF with good liquidity is one of the sharp tools for institutions to copy the bottom of the market.
At the current time node, Lu Yayun believes that Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and other indexes may have investment opportunities. However, since this year, the China Securities 500 index has risen more. Therefore, more funds choose to flow into the Shanghai 50 index, which has more opportunities to stabilize and rebound. “The constituent stocks of the SSE 50 index are mainly partial value targets such as food and beverage, banks and non banks. We expect a short-term change in capital at the end of the year.”
“Some institutional investors aim at an annualized 6%. In order to meet this performance evaluation requirement and reduce volatility, bottom positions usually do some wide-based configuration and occasionally do some band operations. For example, institutional investors such as securities companies and insurance will choose SSE 50ETF if they want to configure blue chips such as food and beverage.” A fund manager in Beijing said.
style is expected to rebalance
Industry insiders said that the oversold of blue chips brings valuation repair opportunities, and it does not rule out the transaction attribute of some institutional funds. However, it is also necessary to observe the changes in the scale of wide-based ETF. If there is no significant fluctuation in the follow-up, it means that the institution intends to make a long-term layout. From experience, compared with industry themed ETFs, many investors prefer strategic allocation when laying out wide-based ETFs.
Lu Yayun believes that next year’s market is a market of style rebalancing, with opportunities for growth stocks and value stocks. “Growth stocks have risen a lot this year, but value stocks have not risen much. If easing expectations are enhanced, it will be good for growth stocks; but if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates and global liquidity shrinks, value stocks may also have phased opportunities next year.”
Nord Fund said that after nearly a year of adjustment, the market style will become more balanced between long-term and short-term, value and growth stocks in 2022.
(China Securities Journal)
