Strategic view
On Wednesday, the stock indexes of A-share and A-share slipped all over the world. As of the close, the Shanghai index fell 0.91%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.24%, the gem index fell 1.40%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 1.46%, the Shanghai 50 fell 1.89%, and the China Securities 500 fell 0.53%. The number of gainers in the two cities was 1875, lower than the average value of 1974 last week and lower than 2739 in the previous trading day. The number of daily limit was 73, lower than the average value of 100 last week and higher than 67 on the previous trading day. The net inflow of northbound funds was 662 million yuan, the average value of last week was 305 million yuan, and the net inflow on the previous trading day was 1.293 billion yuan. The turnover of the two cities was 998.6 billion yuan. A-Shares weakened again, showing a shrinking structure as a whole. The core of Wednesday's decline comes from the weakening of the resonance of banks and baijiu. We believe that the probability is a fall. In terms of short cycle, the market does not have the basis for continuous decline. Multi cycle indicators show obvious signs of stopping the decline. For investors, we think we should have reverse investment thinking at present.
Stock index futures trading strategy
View: the premium of IC futures has expanded significantly, and there is no excessive pessimism in the short term
(1) On December 29, the positions of if, IH and IC contracts were 201700, 119000 and 263600 respectively, with an increase of - 0.07%, 3.95% and - 0.53% on a day-on-day basis;
(2) On December 29, the difference between the contract and spot price of if, IH and IC in the current month was 19.52 points, 9.35 points and 43.43 points, with a change of 0.88 points, - 8.05 points and 19.46 points compared with the previous trading day.
Operation suggestion: ic2201 is mainly low absorption, and the support level is 7260 points
Option trading strategy
Viewpoint: the PCR value decreased slightly, and the momentum of capital shorting weakened
(1) On December 29, the PCR (positions) of 50ETF option, Huatai 300etf option, harvest 300etf option and 300 stock index option were 0.68, 0.89, 0.79 and 0.73 respectively, and the PCR values of 50ETF and 300etf options decreased slightly.
(2) On December 29, the implied volatility of 300etf option and 50ETF option were 15.7% and 16.3% respectively, and the implied volatility of 300etf option and 50ETF option remained low.
Operation suggestion: radical strategy: none at present; Robust strategy: buy 300etf to buy 5250 in January, and sell 300etf to buy 5500 in January. The maximum profit of a single portfolio strategy is 2380 yuan and the maximum loss is 120 yuan; Hedging strategy: None
Risk statement
1. Rapid cooling of market transactions; 2 short term panic continued to spread risk factors.
