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After Samsung and oppo released new folding screen mobile phones in August and December respectively, Huawei also recently released a new folding screen mobile phone P50 pocket. The starting price of the new product is 8988 yuan. It will adopt vertical folding design. Compared with Matex series, P50 pocket has three colors: Crystal Diamond White, obsidian black and gilt gold, which is more fashionable and has a wider audience.
Key investment points
Mobile phone manufacturers have entered the market, and 2022 may usher in the intensive release period of folding screen mobile phones. Since Ruoyu technology took the lead in releasing the world’s first folding screen mobile phone in 2018, several mobile phone manufacturers such as Samsung, Huawei, oppo, Xiaomi and Motorola have successively released folding screen mobile phones. Among them, Samsung is dominant, and 2021q3 has a market share of about 93% in the global folding screen mobile phone market. Among domestic brands, Huawei’s global market shipments account for about 6%, and it has a great advantage in China. China’s market share accounts for about 64%, while the shipments of Xiaomi and oppo are relatively limited. In addition, following the release of new folding screen mobile phones by Samsung, oppo and Huawei since August, the second-generation folding screens of vivo, glory and Xiaomi will also be released in 2022q1, and 2022 may usher in an intensive period of folding screen mobile phone release.
The price of folding screen mobile phones continues to sink, and the volume of folding screen mobile phones has accelerated since 2021q3. In terms of stand-alone price, the initial stand-alone price of folding screen mobile phones is about 10000-20000 yuan. With the price of Samsung Galaxy Z flip3 starting from 7599 yuan in August, oppo findn starting from 7699 yuan in December and Huawei P50 pocket starting from 8988 yuan, the price of folding products mobile phones has entered the era of 7000 +, especially Samsung Galaxy Z flip3 has high market recognition, The shipment volume of 2021q3 exceeded 50% in a single quarter, driving the global shipment of folding screen mobile phones to 2.6 million units, a year-on-year increase of 480% and a month-on-month increase of 215%. Meanwhile, according to DSCC data, it is estimated that the shipment of Q4 folding screen mobile phones will reach 4 million units in 2021, and the annual shipment is expected to exceed 9 million units in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of about 430%. By 2022, the global shipment of folding screen mobile phones is expected to further increase to 15-20 million, a significant increase of about 100% over 2021.
The display screen, battery and rotating shaft are the core incremental parts of the folding screen mobile phone industry chain. Compared with ordinary mobile phones, the incremental space of folding screen mobile phone industry chain is mainly reflected in three parts: display screen, battery and rotating shaft. Among them, the cost of display screen will increase by 70%, and the cost of battery, rotating shaft and other parts will increase by 120%. In the field of display screen, the largest cost increment is flexible AMOLED screen, and the area demand increases by about 50%. Samsung occupied a monopoly position in the global flexible AMOLED production capacity before 2016, with a market share of more than 90%. At present, Chinese panel manufacturers such as BOE, Visionox Technology Inc(002387) and shentianma have made breakthroughs, and all have the mass production capacity of flexible AMOLED. Among them, BOE ranked second in the world in terms of shipments in the global flexible AMOLED market in 2019, accounting for 86.7% in China, and its products have entered the supply chain of Huawei and Motorola folding screen mobile phones. Visionox Technology Inc(002387) and shentianma occupy a certain market share in Xiaomi and Samsung folding screen mobile phones. The second is the cover glass. The glass cover used in traditional smart phones can no longer meet the folding requirements, UTG glass (ultra-thin flexible glass) has better hardness and screen clarity, and it is not easy to crease after repeated use. At present, Samsung has begun to vigorously promote the commercial use of UTG, and oppo has taken the lead in adopting UTG scheme among domestic mobile phone manufacturers. It is expected that UTG glass cover plate will become the mainstream in the future. At present Wuhu Token Sciences Co.Ltd(300088) It has a leading edge in the field of thinning core technology, and China’s market share ranks first. It is expected to benefit from the increase of UTG glass demand in the future. In the field of mobile phone battery, the screen size of folding screen mobile phone increases and the power consumption speed increases significantly. Therefore, the dual cell mode is mainly used to greatly improve the value of single battery. You can pay attention to Chinese consumer electronics battery manufacturers Shenzhen Desay Battery Technology Co.Ltd(000049) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , etc. In the rotating shaft field, the hinge is the key to the folding of the screen. It needs to have a opening and closing life of at least 100000 times. It also needs to have the characteristics of light weight, small size and strong stability. At present, Jiangsu Gian Technology Co.Ltd(300709) and Nbtm New Materials Group Co.Ltd(600114) have great advantages in the folding screen mobile phone hinge field, and are expected to fully benefit from the growth of the hinge market driven by the increased demand of the folding screen mobile phone industry in the future.
Investment suggestion: with the continuous reduction of the price of folding screen mobile phones, mobile phone manufacturers’ folding screen mobile phones gradually enter the intensive release period, and the industry can expect a large amount in the future. The display screen, battery and rotating shaft are the main incremental fields of the folding screen mobile phone industry chain. It is suggested to pay attention to the leaders in each subdivided field.
Risk factors: the sales volume of folding screen mobile phones is lower than expected; Technology upgrading is not as expected; Overseas epidemics have repeatedly affected terminal demand.
