Key data points:
This week, the transaction area of new houses in 42 major cities increased by 18% month on month, and the cumulative transaction area in 2021 increased by 5% year-on-year. Beijing and Shanghai rose 39% and 68% month on month respectively. 1、 The cumulative transaction area of second and third tier cities increased by 17%, 9% and 5% respectively year-on-year. The cumulative trading volume of Wuhu, Fuzhou, Zhuhai and Hangzhou increased by about 134%, 74%, 52% and 53% respectively in 2021.
As of December 17, Saleable area in 13 major cities (inventory) increased by 0.4% month on month; the average decommissioning cycle was 12.8 months, with an average increase of 14% month on month. The decommissioning cycle of Nanning and Putian changed from 10 months and 14.5 months last week to 20.3 months and 21.4 months respectively, with a month on month increase of 103% and 48% respectively. This week, the construction area of second-hand housing transactions in 15 major cities increased by 2% month on month. Chengdu and Jinhua increased by 200% and 28% month on month respectively. In 2021, the cumulative value of second-hand housing transactions increased The transaction area decreased by 8% year-on-year. Shenzhen, Nanning and Dongguan decreased by 57%, 38% and 31% year-on-year respectively in 2021.
This week's view:
This week, under the influence of factors such as the control of the epidemic situation in some cities and the increased marketing efforts of real estate enterprises at the end of the year, the month on month increase in the first and third tier cities was more obvious, driving the month on month increase in new house transactions in key cities, an increase of 18% compared with last week. In terms of second-hand housing transactions, sales in Hangzhou, Chengdu and other cities fell this week, leading to a decline in sales in key cities month on month.
In terms of inventory, affected by the large month on month decline in new house sales in some cities this week, the saleable area in major cities continued to rise month on month. For example, the large month on month growth rate in the decommissioning cycle in Nanning and Putian led to an increase in the average decommissioning cycle in key cities.
Investment suggestions:
Local funds may subsidize or enhance the willingness to buy houses, and the recovery of policies will promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate industry. Recently, the turnover of new and second-hand housing market continued to fluctuate month on month, the turnover of key cities still decreased year-on-year, and the market confidence needs to be improved. In this environment, more house purchase subsidies will be given this week to alleviate the financial pressure of house buyers from the demand side. For example, Hangzhou will give a house purchase subsidy of 1-8 million yuan to different talent types, and Guilin will provide a consumption voucher subsidy of 1% of the contract amount to some house buyers to alleviate the financial pressure of house purchase, which is expected to improve the purchase willingness of some consumers and promote the further improvement of sales in the real estate industry. In addition, all localities have strengthened and improved the transaction market. For example, Hunan has promoted the reform of "delivery of house and certificate" and Zhenjiang has allowed the transaction parties to voluntarily entrust the house transaction funds to the fund custody bank, so as to promote the transaction efficiency, strengthen the market supervision and further standardize the order of the stock house market. This week, the central policy focused on preventing debt risks and promoting industrial development. For example, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission stressed the need to handle the debt risks of large entity enterprises steadily, and some real estate enterprises put forward cashing plans for financial management and bonds to speed up the disposal of enterprise risks; On the other hand, the State Council issued the cold chain logistics development plan to speed up the improvement of relevant social development systems. Some real estate enterprises that have been deployed in this field may benefit. At present, the industry and financial policies are continuously adjusted, and the support of relevant policies may help some real estate enterprises to strengthen capital liquidity; The industry as a whole still maintains the tone of "no speculation in housing and housing" and "three stability". Some real estate enterprises are expected to continue to maintain their competitive advantages of stable capital, resource endowment and stable business structure. Maintain the industry's "stronger than the market" rating.
Risk tip: there may be some uncertainty in industry regulation and financing policies, which may affect the sales performance of listed companies; Macroeconomic fluctuations may have a certain impact on the operation of enterprises in the industry; Epidemic control is uncertain.
