Securities companies: with multiple favorable policies, they are optimistic about the long-term alpha of the industry and are the first to promote the leader of wealth management [ East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) ]. 1) In the first three quarters of 2021, the growth of securities companies is less than the market. With the dawn of top-down policy, it is expected to drive the securities market upward. 2) The three main lines of business were supported, which promoted the continuous rise of roe of securities companies: ① the wealth management business continued to grow, and the channels, products and investment advisers benefited deeply. ② The Beijing stock exchange and the comprehensive registration system are expected to accelerate the coordinated development of the investment banking industry chain (investment banking + investment); ③ the scale of derivatives maintains rapid growth, new products are launched one after another, the superposition system continues to be standardized, and ficc constitutes the core increment. 3) the Internet platform creates high-quality traffic, and scientific and technological output casts the cornerstone of development, [futu holdings] and [tiger securities] Deeply ploughing the overseas blue ocean market, the performance deviates significantly from the valuation, and is optimistic about the long-term development of the company under compliant operation; 4) Our own business growth constitutes the core alpha superimposed capital market policy, and the valuation of securities companies is expected to be repaired. We are firmly optimistic about securities companies. Relative roe is close to the previous bull market level, but its valuation is still at the bottom quarter of history. 5) At the individual stock level, it is recommended to recommend [ East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) ], the leading retail brokerage with the most growth, and recommend [ Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) ] and [ China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) ] (Hong Kong stocks) with obvious advantages in the core business field; it is recommended to recommend [ Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) ] from the perspective of partial elasticity; it is recommended to pay attention to “base content” companies, [ Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) ], [ China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) ] and [ Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) ].
Diversified Finance: from the strong to the blooming, the financial segmentation leader is expected to usher in a new era. 1) Under the background of market performance and stricter internal and external policies, diversified financial stock prices continue to be suppressed; The overall valuation of the second tier industries in the non banking sector has been historically low. At present, some industry trends have a relatively certain inflection point, and the valuation and performance are expected to rise. 2) We are optimistic about the development opportunities of aggregation payment industry under the continuous strengthening of Internet financial supervision; Venture capital enterprises that specialize in Texin’s policies benefit deeply; AMC market space expansion under epidemic situation; Opportunities for the third-party wealth industry under the national financial management; 3) Under the broad space of the industry, the performance of the subdivided leaders has maintained a continuous high growth. At present (as of December 29, 2021), it is basically at a historical low and has significant configuration value. It is recommended to focus on: [far east Hongxin], [ Hainan Haide Capital Management Co.Ltd(000567) ], [ Sichuan Shuangma Cement Co.Ltd(000935) ] and [easy to buy wealth].
Insurance: there is still pressure on the liability side of life insurance, and the inflection point of property insurance premium will appear. 1) In terms of property insurance, one year after the comprehensive reform of auto insurance, the pressure has gradually peaked, waiting for the inflection point of auto insurance premium growth brought by the pressure drop; Leading insurance companies further strengthen their scale, channel and brand advantages and create competitive barriers. 2) In terms of life insurance, due to the contradiction between supply and demand in the industry in the short term, the pressure on the liability side is significant. However, in the long run, with the promotion of channel transformation, the trend of population aging and the strategic requirements of “healthy China”, the life insurance industry is facing profound reconstruction, which is expected to promote the trend improvement of industry assets and liabilities. As interest rates stabilized and rebounded, the pressure on reserves and asset reallocation was suspended. In the long run, the industry will maintain steady growth; 3) The current valuation is low and the allocation value is significant. Property insurance: it is recommended that [China Property Insurance], as the industry leader, will gain greater advantages in the industry pattern optimized by the comprehensive reform of auto insurance; At the level of life insurance, it is recommended to firmly build a professional agent team and China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) with product structure and channel value as one of the excellent representatives of the industry.
Risk tips: 1) further adjustment of stock market; 2) Stricter industry supervision; 3) The control of epidemic situation outside China is less than expected; 4) The premium of new life insurance policies continued to decline; 5) The long-term interest rate drops in the short term; 6) The insurance agent is not as expected; 7) The macroeconomic downturn affects the demand of the leasing industry.
