The energy crisis disturbed overseas aluminum supply, and copper inventories fell sharply
Copper: the copper price rebounded slightly this week, the recent economic turn signals were frequent, the demand side was expected to improve, and the inventory fell sharply during the week. Follow Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) . As of December 29, Shanghai copper reported a closing of 70200 yuan / ton, with a weekly change of 0.73%; The inventory received 75.82 million tons, with a weekly change of – 17.42%.
Aluminum: the aluminum price fluctuates within the week, and the inventory continues to be replenished. As of December 29, Shanghai aluminum reported a closing of 19910 yuan / ton, with a weekly change of – 0.67%; The inventory received 231495 yuan / ton, with a weekly change of 0.55%. China’s operating capacity maintained a downward trend and imports continued to close. The demand side is expected to improve due to the impact of the economic work conference. The recent overseas energy crisis disturbed the supply side, mainly because many aluminum smelters in Europe were forced to reduce production due to power shortage. The profit of electrolytic aluminum industry continued to rise due to cost side factors. Follow Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) .
Precious metals: as of December 21, spot gold in London closed at US $1793.75/oz, with a weekly change of 0.95%; The US dollar index recorded 96.4557, with a weekly change of – 0.11%; The US real interest rate recorded – 0.96%, with a weekly change of – 3bp.
Rare earth permanent magnet: the price of rare earth oxide fluctuated this week and remained relatively high as a whole. As of December 29, Praseodymium oxide (lowest price) closed at 873000 yuan / ton, unchanged during the week; neodymium oxide (lowest price) closed at 905000 yuan / ton, with a weekly change of 0.78%; praseodymium neodymium oxide (lowest price) closed at 832000 yuan / ton, with a weekly change of – 0.12%; dysprosium oxide (lowest price) closed at 2870 yuan / ton, unchanged during the week; terbium oxide (the lowest price) closed at 11070 yuan / ton, which was flat during the week. We believe that the top management continues to pay attention to the strategic low of rare earth, and the industry is expected to enter a period of accelerated integration in the future, and the concentration is expected to increase continuously. In the medium and long term, the continuous growth of new energy vehicles and industrial motors is expected to reconstruct the demand pattern of rare earth permanent magnet. Pay attention to Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) , Yantai Zhenghai Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(300224) , China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) .
Risk tip: the global economic recovery is less than expected; US inflation remains high; The production and sales of new energy vehicles are lower than expected; The energy crisis eased more than expected; The demand for magnetic materials is less than expected; Rapid recovery of supply in Myanmar; Power rationing less than expected
