Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) (000799)
event
On December 26, the Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) fragrance conference with the theme of “standing in the year of the ox and climbing the peak in the year of the tiger” – the annual meeting of national partners in 2021 was held in Changsha, Hunan.
Key investment points
Reform gathers endogenous power, and culture + differentiation keeps moving
Looking back on the past four years, the company’s internal sales company was established as a turning point, and achieved high growth in business quality in the past few years: 1) excellent business growth: the number of customers increased, and the effect of excellent business strategy appeared; 2) Channel growth: the channel value appears, and the core terminal is gradually formed. The number of core terminals increased by 233%, the annual turnover of stores increased by 93%, and the output of a single store was 10W +; 3) Circle growth: strengthen circle marketing and expand loyal consumer groups. Circle marketing is continuing; 4) Team growth: the number of teams has increased and the team value has improved. In 2021, the team of niutuan will continue to expand by 1500 people +. Looking back on the past year, 2021 is the first year of the 14th five year plan. The company has achieved better than expected results in national standard flavor, capacity construction, scientific and technological innovation, talent reserve and business performance, laying the foundation for subsequent development. Looking forward to the future: 1) next year, the company will think and improve in promoting the large volume of waist large single products (hongtan, inheritance, etc.), highlighting the price band of secondary high-end products, the development sustainability after the surge in the number of customers, improving dynamic sales, and strengthening team management and construction; 2) in 2022, the company’s specific work will focus on “1349” and focus on “1349” Guided by the four strategic initiatives of “adhering to brand leadership, strengthening innovation drive, deepening manufacturer co construction and improving capacity layout”, and taking “building a base, breaking through highlands and deepening nationalization” as the main line, we will accelerate the comprehensive achievement of the strategic objectives of the 14th five year plan.
The internal reference is expected to continue to double next year and the Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) series will develop steadily
1) Internal reference: according to recent research, after the new red on September 1, the current price of internal reference in the province is about 830 yuan, the performance is good and stable throughout the year, and the inventory remains healthy. Considering that the company’s overall direction for internal reference next year is still to strictly implement the quota system in the province to control quantity and ensure price, expand outside the province to increase profits + will continue to increase the number of dealers and exclusive stores + the basic sales target of internal reference next year is 2.445 billion and the sprint target is 3 billion, and internal reference is expected to continue to double in 2022.
2) Drunkard series: at present, the rated price of hongtan 20 / hongtan 16 / Inheritance / Zitan 20 in the province is about 400 / 290 / 245 / 395 yuan. In the drunkard series, 21q2 hongtan has gradually replaced the old and new, and the proportion of hongtan has increased to nearly 30%, with the fastest growth rate; Transparent clothing and inheritance purple altar account for about 20% and 10% respectively. It is expected that under the strong waist strategy next year, the red altar will continue to increase. In addition, the interior products of the main wedding banquet scene continue to grow at a high rate under the low base.
3) Xiangquan series: as an introduction cultivation series of fragrance type, the company will continue to improve the quality of Xiangquan and gradually realize the price increase under stable volume. This year, the revenue of Xiangquan + internal products accounts for about 15%.
The company’s promising start: the company’s early account rolling + slightly controlled goods + promising start payment proportion is expected to be 30% – 35% (internal reference is expected to be about 40%). At present, some dealers have begun to make payment, and the promising start is expected.
Expansion outside the province is one of the priorities, and the process of nationalization is accelerated
One of the company’s priorities in 2021 is to achieve rapid expansion outside the province. In terms of investment promotion, the company expects to increase 600 + dealers this year. Next year, it may continue to increase investment promotion and further optimize the dealer structure. In terms of market, quota control will be carried out in the provincial market with large proportion of domestic ginseng wine, and the key markets outside the province are expected to double this year; Drunkard series achieved high growth this year and will continue to grow steadily next year.
The objectives of the 14th five year plan show confidence and double the internal reference objectives to ensure performance
At present, COFCO group has regarded ” Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) ” as one of the five key development brands of the group. At the same time, the company strives to break through 3 billion, exceed 5 billion and strive to reach 10 billion to show its confidence. Taking into account: the high-end and large-scale price of neishen liquor in the card slot in 21 years is expected to double its performance; Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) series is expected to share the development dividend of secondary high-end wine and realize product upgrading and sales at favorable prices; Xiangquan series will control quantity and price; The market share in the province will increase steadily, and the key markets outside the province are expected to accelerate the horizontal expansion; The national standard of “fragrant and fragrant Baijiu” was officially promulgated. The production capacity has increased steadily (at present, the production capacity is about 10000 tons, the phase I project of production zone 3 is under construction, the phase II project of production zone 3 and the phase I project of reconstruction and expansion of brewing workshop in production zone 2 have been approved by the board of directors, and 12800 tons of production capacity will be added after the completion of the above projects). We believe that Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) will continue to achieve high-quality growth.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the company’s revenue growth from 2021 to 2023 will be 82.8%, 42.7% and 31.7% respectively; The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was 101.5%, 49.2% and 33.8% respectively; EPS is 3.0, 4.5 and 6.1 yuan / share; PE was 71, 48 and 36 times respectively. Considering the strong certainty of the company’s annual performance, the current valuation is cost-effective, and the buy rating is maintained.
Catalyst: Baijiu demand exceeds expectations; The internal driving pin keeps improving.
Risk warning: Overseas epidemic affects China’s two outbreak or prevention and control upgrade, affecting Baijiu‘s overall sales recovery. The situation of Guoyuan movable pin was less than expected.
