Key points:
Event:
From January to February, China's total import and export value was 973.45 billion US dollars, an increase of 15.9%. Among them, the export was 544.7 billion US dollars, an increase of 16.3%; Imports reached 428.75 billion US dollars, an increase of 15.5%; The trade surplus was 115.95 billion US dollars, an increase of 19.5%.
The export boom continued, and the export of mechanical and electrical products increased rapidly
In the first two months, in the face of many external uncertainties, China's foreign trade still achieved steady growth and export resilience. In terms of exports, the exports of mechanical and electrical products and labor-intensive products increased.
In the first two months, China exported 2.02 trillion yuan of mechanical and electrical products, an increase of 9.9%, accounting for 58.3% of the total export value; Clothing and accessories amounted to 162.27 billion yuan, an increase of 3.7%; Including textile masks, an increase of 157.7%. Exports to major trading partners such as the EU, ASEAN and the United States increased by 21.4%, 10.6% and 11.1% respectively. Export toughness is still strong.
Domestic demand is guaranteed, and the rise in commodity prices drives up imports,
In February, China's PMI was 50.2, slightly weaker and still above the boom and bust line, which has a certain support for domestic demand. At the same time, the two sessions focused on steady growth. The setting of GDP growth target of about 5.5% ensured domestic demand. In addition, the increase in imports was also affected by the rise in food and energy prices. Overall, the import volume of iron ore was basically flat, the price fell, the import volume of crude oil, coal and natural gas decreased, and the import volume and price of soybeans and refined oil increased simultaneously.
Russia and Ukraine account for little of China's foreign trade, but it brings great uncertainty to the future. The total trade between China and Russia and Ukraine accounts for 2.32% and 0.32% of all foreign trade. On the whole, the direct impact of the Russian Ukrainian conflict on the global economy is limited. However, a series of problems such as sanctions, inflation and supply chain crisis caused by long-term conflict have brought great uncertainty to the global market.
China is an important grain producing country in the world and a grain importing country. China's wheat import dependence is 7% and corn 9.4%. The overall import dependence is not high and the inventory is sufficient, which can resist the fluctuation of external grain prices. However, if global food prices continue to rise, China's food import costs will rise, which will lead to an increase in imported food prices.
China's crude oil sales are large, and its dependence on imports is as high as 81%, of which imports from Russia account for 15%. The dependence on natural gas imports reached 43%. China is a major energy consumer and producer, and its energy supply is generally guaranteed. At the same time, China's crude oil and natural gas import sources are diversified, and the import can maintain overall stability. At present, China's renewable energy is developing rapidly and is promoting the green and low-carbon transformation of energy, which will resist external shocks to a certain extent. However, the soaring short-term energy prices have increased China's energy import costs and have a great impact on China.
Risk tips
The geopolitical crisis in Europe has expanded, the global epidemic has exceeded expectations, and China US trade policy has exceeded expectations.
