On March 9, A-Shares staged another “thrilling scene”, and the stock index fell by more than 4% for a time.
The trend of the stock index is as follows:
\u3000\u3000
Gem refers to the following trend:
\u3000\u3000
Once the market fell, the heart of “going to the rooftop” was there, and then there was a reversal, and finally there was the market of “gold needle bottoming”. As of the closing on March 9, the Shanghai index fell 1.13%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 1.12% and the gem index fell 0.63%, all of which narrowed sharply.
From the concept sector, office supplies, coal, electricity and power grid led the increase, while non-ferrous metals, education, real estate and other sectors led the decline.
What triggered this wave of decline? Can you “copy the bottom”? What sector is better? For the first time, fund Jun interviewed the investors of Nanfang, Huaxia, Boshi, China Merchants, Ping An, Dacheng, Pengyang, YONGYING, Soochow, Donghai, Haifutong, Puyin AXA, Hua’an, CITIC Baocheng, Cinda Aoyin, Everbright Prudential, great wall, Western benefit, Yinhua, galaxy, ChuangJin Hexin, Huatai Bairui, Taixin, Hang Seng Qianhai and other companies.
panic triggered intraday plunge
What triggered Wednesday’s plunge? From the perspective of investment research of fund companies, it is more caused by panic.
Yang Jianhua, deputy general manager and investment director of Great Wall Fund, said that there are several main factors for the current market shock: first, in terms of China’s economy, the official PMI in February was 50.2, and the prosperity level increased slightly. The credit scale and total social financing in January exceeded market expectations, but the structure is still unsatisfied, which exacerbated the market’s concern about steady growth. Second, the Fed will discuss interest rates in the middle of the month, and the boots of raising interest rates have not yet landed. Third, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has a direct impact on the trend of commodity prices and the trend and expectation of inflation. The manufacturing industry is affected by the unexpected rise in costs, and the short-term logic is impacted. It is necessary to closely observe the trend of commodity prices in the follow-up.
“The recent sharp fluctuations in the global stock market are mainly due to: first, the continuous escalation of the Russian Ukrainian crisis and the sudden increase in the uncertainty of the international situation; second, the sharp rise in commodity prices has led to an increase in the risk of stagflation, and the Chinese market has not been able to survive.” Soochow Anhang quantitative mixed fund manager Xu Yi said
Huaxia Fund said that the market adjustment is mainly the impact of external risk events on sentiment. First, the Russian Ukrainian war has impacted the risk preference and complicated the peripheral environment. Second, the expectation of global high inflation is unfavorable to the environment of overvalued growth stocks. Third, the Fed has entered the cycle of raising interest rates, and it is a foregone conclusion to raise interest rates in March. The unpredictability of war and sanctions confrontation has a huge impact on the market, and even triggered derivative risks such as emotional freezing point and collective stop loss, which makes panic dominate the market and lead to the overshoot of the index.
Galaxy fund also believes that the panic decline is due to some short-term effects brought by the Russian Ukrainian conflict, which is still the main reason. On the one hand, the third round of negotiations between the two sides did not make significant progress. The superposition of the financial sanctions imposed by the United States and Europe on Russia led to the rapid contraction of market risk appetite, high risk aversion and the jump of the US dollar index; On the other hand, the US ban on the import of Russian crude oil has accelerated the market’s concern about global stagflation. Superimposed on the upcoming fed interest rate hike, the impact of the market on the global demand side is included in the pessimistic expectation.
At the same time, the substantial flight of funds going north is also an important catalyst for market adjustment. Historically, although the proportion of northbound funds in the overall A-share trading volume is low, the direction and scale of inflow and outflow are highly synchronized with the CSI 300 index. In the three trading days of this week, the accumulated sales of funds going north reached 27.9 billion. Today, the outflow scale in a single day reached 10.9 billion, which further triggered panic. Secondly, the cold issuance of public funds is also one of the market adjustments. Since the beginning of the year, the issuance rhythm of public funds has slowed down significantly. The slowdown of incremental funds increased the high volatility caused by the stock game, and the industry began to differentiate.
Dacheng Fund believes that there are four main reasons for the sharp decline in the market: first, the global panic has heated up again due to the announcement of the embargo on Russian oil by the United States. Second, the year-on-year decline of China’s PPI has slowed down, which has also exacerbated the market’s concerns about China’s inflation prospects. Third, the outflow of funds going north exceeded 20 billion for three consecutive trading days, dragging down market sentiment. Fourth, the central bank has recovered liquidity for seven consecutive days and continued to return 10 billion yuan on Wednesday.
Cinda Aussie Fund said that the factors of the recent large correction in the A-share market include the expectation of interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical conflict, downward pressure on China’s economy and disturbance factors of the epidemic. The market has also fully responded to these negative factors, mainly forming a great impact on market liquidity and trading sentiment, We believe that the market may enter a volatile market in the short term.
YONGYING Fund believes that the reasons for market fluctuations are: first, the inflation risk remains unabated due to the continuous rise of overnight oil prices, and second, the fear of overseas capital outflow. According to the media, the Norwegian sovereign fund, the world’s largest sovereign fund, removed Li Ning from the investment list, which triggered the market’s concern about overseas capital outflow from the Chinese market; In addition, after the obvious adjustment of the Chinese market, the Chinese market once had a negative feedback effect of passive decline in liquidity.
Pengyang Fund believes that the main reason for the market adjustment is that the current international geopolitical conflict situation is not clear, and the expectation of the global market for the first interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve has not been highly unified, waiting for the boots to land, so the impact on the fundamentals of the economy and Industry is pending. The tightening of policies in Europe and the United States will have an impact on some emerging growth industries, but some industries such as photovoltaic and wind power are less affected. The ongoing two sessions of the National People’s Congress have also released the policy signal to moderately advance the development of new infrastructure and promote the solution of the funding gap of renewable energy power generation subsidies.
AXA Puyin Fund believes that the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, oil and other bulk commodities continue to rise, squeezing the cost of raw materials, and the fundamentals of corporate profits may be challenged; The market’s judgment on the macro monetary policy and the rhythm of the Fed’s interest rate hike is divided, and the uncertainty increases; In addition, repeated outbreaks have also increased the uncertainty of economic repair. Under the background of the superposition of uncertain factors at home and abroad, the rising risk aversion led to the adjustment of the capital market.
Everbright Prudential Fund said that the situation in Russia and Ukraine pushed up commodity prices and the supply risk continued to ferment; New cases occurred in many places. From the perspective of the Chinese market, the situation of epidemic prevention and control is still severe, or it also raises its concern about the demand side of the economy, resulting in market shock and adjustment.
Haifutong Fund believes that A-Shares and Hong Kong shares fluctuated sharply again in the session. The summary reasons are as follows: 1) the geographical conflict continued to ferment, and the market’s wait-and-see mood for the Russian Ukrainian incident was relatively strong, especially the risk concerns on the supply side of bulk commodities increased. The superposition of the repeated outbreaks in China also suppressed the demand side to a certain extent, resulting in a general correction of the market; 2) The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to the rise of oil, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) and other prices, pushing up inflation and strengthening the expectation of tightening overseas monetary policy; In addition, as China is a net importer of crude oil, rising oil prices will raise enterprise costs and have a negative impact on profits. 3) Some strategic products have passively reduced their positions recently, which has exacerbated the market volatility to a certain extent; In addition, the change of nickel price under the influence of yesterday’s peripheral events also caused some disturbance to the market.
Yinhua Fund said that the market continued the recent downturn, and the new adverse factors included the official signing of the executive order banning the import of energy from Russia by the United States by US President Biden, including the prohibition of the import of Russian crude oil and some petroleum products, liquefied natural gas and coal, which led to a renewed rise in crude oil prices and an unprecedented level of stagflation concerns. In addition, from the disk perspective, there are signs of “negative feedback” at the intraday trading level of the market, that is, after the previous continuous correction of the market, there may be the possibility of passive stop loss of funds or passive selling or passive closing of positions caused by fund redemption products.
The Western benefit fund said that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has increased, and the market has upgraded from worrying about inflation to worrying about stagflation. The conflict continued to ferment. On the one hand, the prices of crude oil and bulk commodities continued to rise, causing the market to continue to raise concerns about inflation. At the same time, it also upgraded the uncertainty about future economic growth; On the other hand, Europe and the United States have successively imposed sanctions on some Russian industries, the peripheral situation is still facing great uncertainty, and the market risk aversion has increased significantly. The real estate, steel, nonferrous metals and other sectors with relatively good early performance have been significantly adjusted; Power equipment, electronics and other growth sectors have shown relatively strong toughness after significant adjustment.
current point has reached the bottom area with investment value
Although the market is in shock, many investors believe that the current point has reached the bottom of the investment value.
Huang Qianyi, manager of Taixin modern service industry mixed fund, said that it remains to be seen whether today’s “golden needle bottoming” indicates the real last decline. The heavy position stocks of the fund are the hardest hit areas of this round of adjustment. Whether the relevant killing and falling momentum has been released remains to be verified by time. However, it is undeniable that the current point has been the bottom area with great investment value, and many stocks in the sector have fallen out of the “golden pit”, which is a rare layout opportunity for long-term funds.
Huang Qianyi said that in the future, A-Shares will still show a state of structural market, and when market sentiment can be ignited depends on whether a hot spot with sustained strength can be born. Judging from the current market situation, the international commodity prices even hit new highs, driving the overall rise of the whole upstream resource prices, but the stock prices of A-share related listed companies do not reflect significantly. On the one hand, there are difficult factors in the valuation and pricing of cyclical stocks, on the other hand, it is also related to the long-term marginalization of the cyclical sector by mainstream institutions. In the context of the continuous high and strong price of upstream resources, it can be predicted that the performance of cyclical stocks this year is more likely to exceed the expected growth. At the same time, the cost performance of some growth sectors has also been highlighted after a sharp correction. Once the market has gradually formed a consensus in this regard, it is not ruled out that cyclical stocks and growth stocks will become the “leader” to lead the structural recovery and strength of the market in the future.
Yang Jianhua, deputy general manager and investment director of Great Wall Fund, said that at present, the factors worried by the market have been gradually alleviated, the steady growth policies have been issued one after another, and the structure may be optimized in the future. Unless the Fed’s interest rate hike is in place, it may have a greater impact on the market once the Fed’s interest rate hike is lower than the market’s expectations. The recent adjustment range of A-share market is large, and the trend of continuous adjustment cannot be ruled out in the short term. However, from the perspective of lengthening the cycle, the valuation has been quite attractive.
Boshi Fund said that the A-share market is still vulnerable to external uncertainties, showing a volatile trend. The two sessions have released positive signals. The GDP target growth rate in 2022 is 5.5%, higher than the average of 5.1% in the past two years; The central bank turned in $1 trillion in profits to support the rescue of enterprises, stabilize employment and ensure people’s livelihood. It can be seen that China’s current policy is still focused on steady growth. Although the current external uncertainties still exist, the foundation for the medium and long-term improvement of the A-share market is still there. We can still have confidence in its future performance, there are still structural opportunities, and the industry sectors benefiting from policy support will still have a good performance.
Hua’an Fund believes that the government work report proposes to “put stable growth in a more prominent position” and “expand the scale of new loans”. It is expected that the intensity of stable investment is expected to increase, and the policy of tax reduction and fee reduction to support small and micro enterprises and ensure the main body of enterprises is still relatively strong. From the data of social finance volume in January and PMI exceeding expectations in February, the steady growth policy is gradually strengthened, which is expected to promote the gradual stabilization of the economy and the equity market. In terms of structure, balanced allocation, steady growth, high dividends and digital economy. Attach importance to safety margin and pullback control, and allocate gold as a hedging tool.
YONGYING Fund believes that the pessimism in extreme cases has been released, the short-term adjustment may be coming to an end, and the market is expected to have more opportunities than risks in the medium and long term. Looking forward to the future, if the overseas risks are gradually alleviated, the market will look back to China. China’s steady growth policy may support the recovery of the market. From the second quarter, the policy effect of steady growth may gradually appear. Under the condition of repairing the economic fundamentals, the stock market is expected to usher in an upward trend.
Pengyang Fund believes that looking forward to the future, the stabilization of market sentiment depends on the realization of more stable growth policies and the elimination of overseas uncertainty. In terms of investment strategy, the policy transmission from loose money to credit expansion focuses on individual stocks with high certainty of domestic demand and fundamental growth. From a fundamental point of view, we should guard against the risk of rising costs in the midstream manufacturing industry caused by the rise of upstream costs and the risk that overseas demand is less than expected. In addition to the oversold rebound that may come at any time in the short term, the rebound window of high-quality enterprises in the first quarter is also worth looking forward to.
Yinhua Fund said that although the short-term global fluctuations are contagious, we judge that in the medium term, the Chinese market is expected to perform relatively well in the global fluctuations. The Chinese market has seen the “policy bottom”. In the follow-up, we will wait for the “bottom” depending on geographical events, epidemic and other factors; As the steady growth policy continues to work, the “bottom of growth” is expected to be seen around the second quarter. The short-term allocation direction may be biased towards the field of undervalued and stable growth. The growth sector may gradually usher in a turnaround after the macro level risks are fully exposed.
AXA Puyin Fund said that the fluctuation of the international situation caused great short-term pressure on A-Shares and returned to the weak market; However, the government work report during the two sessions over the weekend further clarified the specific direction and strength of relevant policies, including a new round of tax and fee reduction, expanding effective investment, implementing enterprise relief, stabilizing employment, ensuring people’s livelihood and promoting consumption. Therefore, the stable growth sector has relative advantages. At present, the market is still in a state of unclear main line, and the main line will be re established after the performance of the first quarterly report is confirmed.
Everbright Prudential Fund said that the market is worried that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and inflation may be prolonged, especially the oil price continues to rise rapidly at a high level, suppressing the expectations of remote elements; At the same time, China’s economic transformation has entered the deep-water area. The market does not have high trust in the boost of the “stable growth” policy to the expectations of economic molecules. Superimposed with low-risk preference, the market is expected to remain weak. However, considering that the rhythm of external conflicts is difficult to judge, the medium-term logic focuses on the strength and effect of China’s central and local fiscal expenditure. However, from the perspective of valuation, some A shares may have high allocation value.
CITIC Prudential Fund said that A-Shares fell sharply again and the intraday rebound narrowed. Our view is that they are oversold in the short term, but there are still many challenges in the medium term. In the short term, from the perspective of historical law, A-Shares tend to be weak during the two sessions and strong again after the two sessions. In addition to the possible oversold rebound in the short term, the first quarter market also deserves attention. However, in the medium-term dimension, there are still many adverse factors, such as rising global inflation expectations, foreign capital outflow caused by geopolitical risks, downward profit growth, concerns about policy strength and so on.
The Western profit Fund said it would keep a close track of the external situation and liquidity in the short term. The external situation is still facing uncertainty, the liquidity level still needs further observation, and the market is still at the bottom of shock. However, China’s economy and A-share market have certain independence, and the liquidity impact on the market is expected to show a marginal decreasing trend.
With the gradual stabilization of the external situation and the gradual digestion of inflation expectations, we are still not pessimistic about the market in the medium and long term.
Investors don’t have to panic about the growth of Donghai fund in the quarter. With the gradual calm of the two sessions, we believe that gdp5 The growth target of 5% is fully in line with expectations. With the subsequent disclosure of economic data from January to February and financial data in February, the economic data is not as good as expected and the financial data structure has not improved, which may be a signal to improve the stable growth expectation of the market in stages; As for the growth direction, after a substantial adjustment, the annual quarterly report performance forecast exceeded the expected direction, and the performance of individual stocks was stronger. At present, the rhythmic and gradual layout of high-quality growth stocks that can be gradually selected from bottom to top.
Ping An Fund said that the international political and economic situation has entered the deep water area, which changes rapidly and is difficult to predict. The pessimistic expectation that European and American countries will either bear hyperinflation or the great recession has kept the global risk assets under pressure, and then disturbed China’s asset prices. However, under the general tone of “focusing on me”, China’s steady growth policy centered on economic construction should continue to work, the fiscal policy should be positive and ahead of schedule, the monetary policy should be flexible and appropriate, the industrial policy has been loosened one after another, and the wide credit has begun to be gradually implemented. The goal of GDP growth of 5.5% proposed by the two sessions is encouraging. The improvement of the profit side of A-Shares is on the way. We continue to be optimistic about the long-term investment value of a shares.
short term undervaluation, steady growth and high resources
long term optimistic about technology and new energy
Which sectors are more attractive? In the short term, resources, undervalued, steady growth and other sectors may be better.
The South Fund said that looking ahead, the situation in Russia and Ukraine has not yet seen obvious signs of easing. Even if the war is over, the subsequent sanctions may still hinder the recovery of the global supply chain. Therefore, the situation in Russia and Ukraine has produced strong uncertainty on the supply of bulk commodities. In the short term, the market will still focus on bottom seeking and bottom building. After the release of external risks and China’s steady growth, A-Shares will usher in a clearer upward starting point signal. What needs to be vigilant is that overseas monetary policy tends to tighten as a whole, which deviates from China’s loose monetary policy. If the interest rate gap between China and the United States narrows than expected or the RMB exchange rate fluctuates greatly, it may restrict China’s policy space for steady growth.
In terms of industry allocation, in the short term, we can focus on upstream resource products that may be disturbed by the global supply chain, such as fossil energy, energy metals and industrial metals. With the development of the stable growth policy after the two sessions and the fiscal expenditure moving forward in the first and second quarters, the pull of real estate infrastructure investment will bring growth opportunities to the financial and construction industries. According to the tone of the industrial trend in the government work report, we can pay attention to the investment opportunities in digital economy, high-end equipment, raw materials, new energy storage, photovoltaic, wind power and other sectors.
Haifutong Fund believes that A-Shares and Hong Kong shares showed a structurally differentiated market in 2021. At present, the market has been sharply adjusted, which has released certain risks and will also bring some structural mistakes. The return of valuation contains investment opportunities, and the assets with lower valuation are more defensive. In the follow-up, we will continue to pay attention to the changes in the peripheral environment and capital market. The allocation should be moderately balanced. In the short term, the certainty of stocks in the direction of stable growth is relatively high, and there are still some opportunities for upward fluctuations; In the medium and long term, leading enterprises in science and technology, advanced manufacturing, new energy and other sectors will still be an important allocation direction; In addition, there is room for improvement in the performance of some consumer industries, which can also be paid some attention.
AXA Puyin believes that the market needs to comprehensively consider the gradual implementation of China’s steady growth policy and the impact of external risk factors in the follow-up. According to the current market situation, there are still many uncertainties, including the international situation, China’s epidemic situation and the US monetary policy. We need to find certainty in the uncertainty, focusing on photovoltaic, steady growth, electricity, medicine Structural opportunities in sectors such as consumption.
Western gains Fund said that it will pay attention to the main line of global inflation and stable growth in the short term. In the medium and long term, the science and technology sector with high growth and the consumer sector benefiting from the recovery of the epidemic still deserve special attention.
Xu Yi, manager of Soochow Anxiang quantitative hybrid fund, said that throughout history, each market fluctuation has provided investors with more layout opportunities from a medium and long-term perspective. He believes that this time may be no exception. After the market fluctuates sharply, there are still layout opportunities in the medium and long term. It is suggested to pay attention to industries with strong fundamentals such as semiconductor, clean energy and military industry, which are expected to have large growth space in the future.
Everbright Prudential Fund said that the focus is on China’s stable growth. First, China’s stable economy mainly depends on infrastructure, and the new and old infrastructure chain is expected to remain dominant. Second, before the risk appetite is low and the inflation expectation is strong, the industry that may underestimate the value still has a comparative advantage. In addition, we can also pay attention to the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, aviation airport, commerce and retail sectors with the improvement of marginal prosperity and reversal of difficulties; Medicine with low economic relevance, capital construction countercyclical (TMT purchased by the government, construction), media sector; In addition, gold not only has the demand for risk aversion this year, but also has the value of allocation under the condition of high inflation and even stagflation; The main risk factors are the upward trend of real interest rate, which limits the rising space of gold, but there are relatively more positive factors;
Huatai Bairui Fund said that it needs to wait for the easing of overseas high inflation in the short term, and the market is waiting for more policies to clarify the direction. Recently, the bulk commodity sector has performed strongly, and the price rise of related energy has a conductive effect on aluminum, chemical industry, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) etc. In the environment of stable growth in the early stage, the market pays more attention to the infrastructure chain. We believe that there is still potential policy space in the real estate and related industrial chains. The process of “climbing over the ridge” of China’s economy needs timely policy force. In the medium term, industrial transformation is still inseparable from the participation of advanced manufacturing industry. Specifically, it focuses on the sectors represented by smart cars and new household appliances, with both consumption boosting and high-end manufacturing. With the policy window approaching in March, we pay attention to industries with policy guidance and excellent medium and long-term pattern, and strive to lay out the direction of prosperity and high-quality companies.
Looking forward to the future, Dacheng Fund believes that the strongest disturbance stage of overseas factors may be in the past, and the mood is expected to gradually usher in repair. China’s two sessions have released a clear signal of “stable growth”. At present, the market has good internal conditions, and the worst stage of disturbance by overseas factors may be in the past. The subsequent market sentiment is expected to be repaired and improved.
In terms of industry allocation, it is suggested to pay attention to the “steady growth” direction of real estate, infrastructure and banking. The two sessions put “steady growth” in a prominent position, and the trend of supporting the economy with policies throughout the year is more obvious. With the marginal loosening of real estate policy, the continuous implementation and promotion of infrastructure projects, and the continuous overweight of wide currency and credit, the valuation of infrastructure, real estate, banking and other sectors will continue to be repaired. In addition, under the background of many disturbances from overseas factors, the “steady growth” sector will also have good defensive value in the short term.
Galaxy fund is still highly optimistic about the A-share market. In the medium term, several major risks restricting A-Shares are being mitigated. 1. The impact peak caused by the Russian Ukrainian crisis has passed, and the rest is more concerned about the cost pressure on the industry level caused by the rise of bulk commodity prices. Once the negotiations progress, the repair of global risk appetite will bring a more objective rebound to the market. 2. The global stagflation has little impact on China. China’s economy has entered the later stage of post epidemic growth ahead of the world. There is no pressure of demand forcing high inflation in China. Today, the central bank turned in 1 trillion yuan of finance, which also just confirms the macro pattern of China’s monetary support and fiscal power. We continue to focus on new energy related industries that are optimistic about steady growth and long-term prosperity.
Hang Seng Qianhai looks forward to the future. According to the government work report in 2022, we believe that the theme of “stable growth” may run through the whole year, and focus on the following sectors: 1) building materials: with the growth rate of social finance exceeding expectations and the accelerated implementation of project / special debt, infrastructure is expected to continue to grow steadily.
It is suggested to pay attention to investment opportunities in cement, water reducing agent, pipe and other industries. 2) Nonferrous Metals: the prosperity of the new energy sector continues, the short-term development power of upstream raw materials such as rare earth, lithium, copper foil and aluminum foil remains strong, and the general direction of the upward cycle of prosperity remains unchanged in the medium and long term. 3) Coal: as a blue chip stock with undervalued value and high dividend for a long time, affected by policies, the fluctuation of coal price will be greatly reduced this year. The profitability of coal enterprises is generally good and very stable.
In the long run, the overall goal of carbon peaking in 2030 and carbon neutralization in 2060 will not be reversed. The high-end manufacturing industries represented by new energy vehicles, photovoltaic and electronics have an increasing weight in a shares. These industries have long-term development logic. When the valuation is adjusted back to a reasonable range, they will have investment value in the long run, You can also focus on low-level configuration opportunities.
market up and down
panic adjustment or investment sowing date
For the future, Huaxia Fund recommends investors that the market rise and fall, panic adjustment or investment sowing date.
Huaxia Fund said that the market risk is structural rather than systematic, and the possibility of continuous unilateral decline is low. However, considering the short-term uncertainty and the possibility of repeated fluctuations at the index level, it is suggested that investors can continue to observe carefully and do not blindly copy the bottom of full positions. For high-quality public fund products, we suggest investors to make long-term investment or adopt fixed investment strategy by taking advantage of market fluctuations. The stock market fluctuates and the fund fluctuates. We should treat fund investment rationally without panic.
In particular, after this round of decline, the valuation of a large number of high-quality assets with high previous valuation began to return to a reasonable range. Some enterprises of these high-quality assets will also benefit from the current economic recovery. At the same time, they will benefit from economic transformation and double carbon development for a long time, and will continue to contribute to good profit growth. For long-term funds, It still has great configuration attraction.
In the long run, time is a friend of investment. As of March 8, 2022, the annualized return of partial equity hybrid fund index since the base date (December 31, 2003) was 14.37%, 9.86 percentage points higher than that of Shanghai Composite Index in the same period, and the annualized return of bond fund index since the base date was 6%, 3.25 percentage points higher than the three-year time deposit interest rate of the bank.
The market will inevitably rise and fall. Long term investment can ignore short-term fluctuations and has no excellent timing ability. It is forbidden to trade funds as stocks. At the same time, it can be distributed. In terms of investment layout, it does not focus on a single sector or theme products, the undervalued and high boom sectors are balanced, and the organic combination of low-risk and high-risk products is more conducive to reducing portfolio volatility in a volatile market.
Wang Jing, chief strategic analyst of ChuangJin Hexin fund, also said that as far as China is concerned, PPI is stable, CPI is low, and inflation is less troubled. The main concerns of the market are the uncertainty of the external political environment (determining the trend of foreign investment) and whether the economy can stabilize and recover (whether the policy of steady growth can be effective). The recent spread of the epidemic and the sharp decline in the latest real estate sales have not eased market concerns.
However, historically, the economic growth targets set by the central government have been achieved or even exceeded. We should have patience and confidence in the development of stable growth policies. China’s economy first hit the bottom in the fourth quarter of last year. Recent economic data also showed some highlights, such as the resilience of exports and the development of infrastructure. I believe that in the global countercurrent this year, China’s economy can stabilize and recover and achieve the expected goal.
At the same time, the valuation of China’s stock market is not high. After falling, the absolute point of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index has returned to the range during the epidemic in 2020. The relative position has reached the bottom support of the stock disaster in 2015, the circuit breaker in 2016, the trade war in 2018 and the covid-19 epidemic in 2020, and the safety margin has increased. According to historical experience, after the liquidity crisis is unlocked, the market recovery is a high probability event.
