in the face of such market trend, the fund company believes that it is the impact of external risk events on sentiment, and the change of market fluctuation is a normal phenomenon. As long as there are no large-scale and systematic problems, investors do not have to be overly pessimistic. On the contrary, panic falls are often the timing of layout
A shares staged a "deep V" rebound, overseas risk disturbance intensified, and when did the panic dissipate?
On March 9, A-Shares plunged in the intraday, and there was a "deep V" reversal, but it was still difficult to stop the decline. As of the closing of the day, the Shanghai stock index fell for five consecutive days, of which three trading days occurred this week (March 7-9), with a decline of more than 5%. While market sentiment fell into the freezing point, many funds with leading earnings in the past two years have retreated to varying degrees. As of March 8, many equity funds have suffered large losses during the year.
In the face of such a market trend, the fund company believes that it is the impact of external risk events on sentiment, and the change of market fluctuation is a normal phenomenon. As long as there are no large-scale and systemic problems, investors do not have to be overly pessimistic. On the contrary, panic falls are often the timing of layout.
multiple institutions' emergency release
China Merchants Fund explained the reasons for the sharp decline in the A-share market this week, mainly in the following two aspects:
\u3000\u3000 "On the one hand, from the perspective of stock pricing, the core lies in the decline of enterprise profit expectation, the rise and high fluctuation of discount rate, and the deterioration of micro trading structure. Specifically, 1. The economy and profit expectation are downward: the two sessions set a GDP growth target of 5.5% in 2022. Although it releases some positive signals, the market lacks confidence in fundamental expectations. 2. The discount rate is upward and high in the near future The risk appetite of market investors decreased due to the rise of crude oil and other bulk prices, and the inflation of physical assets was fierce, affecting the real economy; And there are rumors in the market that the United States will jointly sanction investment in China. 3. With the decline of the market, the rapid withdrawal of quantitative hedge funds, 'fixed income +' products and absolute income funds, as well as the redemption pressure on the liability side of public funds, have led to the rapid deterioration of the micro trading structure. On the other hand, the expected contraction of overseas liquidity and the uncertain prospect of the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine will still have an impact on market risk appetite under the infection of overseas emotions. "
Huaxia Fund believes that this round of market decline is mainly related to geographical conflict and inflation risk resonance. The main external risk events include: the impact of the Russian Ukrainian war on risk appetite and the complexity of the peripheral environment; High inflation is unfavorable to the growth of global stocks; The Fed has entered the interest rate hike cycle, and it is a foregone conclusion to raise interest rates in March. In general, the unpredictability of war and sanctions confrontation has brought a huge impact on the market, and even triggered derivative risks such as emotional freezing point and collective stop loss, which makes panic dominate the market and lead to the overshoot of the index.
Hu Po, manager of Rongzhi investment fund of private placement paipai.com, told the reporter of the international finance news that under the condition that the central bank released liquidity yesterday, the A-share market opened higher and opened lower and went deeper and deeper. There was an obvious stampede phenomenon in the session. We believe that in this case, fundamentals are not the biggest influencing factor of a shares, and liquidity has become the most important focus at present. The extreme pessimism of investors, coupled with the fact that a large number of public and private funds and institutional funds are close to the liquidation line of products, leads to the selling pressure of the whole market far greater than the current buying. In the case of market panic, investors dare not easily copy the bottom, resulting in the market is easy to fall and difficult to rise, and it is easy to fall unilaterally.
public and private placement focus on layout opportunities
Affected by multiple risk events, the current market sentiment has fallen into freezing point. The reporter found that institutions have a more positive view of the market.
Huaxia Fund believes that although the external environment is complex and changeable, internally, positive factors gradually accumulate in the process of market decline. Under the overweight of policies, the trend of stable and good economic fundamentals is becoming more and more obvious. "Market volatility is a normal phenomenon. Stocks must rise and fall. It is impossible to only rise and not fall. However, we should have a definition of the range. As long as there are no large-scale and systematic problems, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. In fact, looking back, panic falls are often the timing of layout."
The South Fund believes that the situation in Russia and Ukraine has not yet seen obvious signs of easing. Even if the war ends, the subsequent sanctions may still hinder the recovery of the global supply chain. Therefore, the situation in Russia and Ukraine has generated strong uncertainty about the supply of bulk commodities. In the short term, the market will still focus on bottom seeking and bottom building. After the release of external risks and China's steady growth, A-Shares will usher in a clearer upward starting point signal. What needs to be vigilant is that overseas monetary policy tends to tighten as a whole, which deviates from China's loose monetary policy. If the interest rate gap between China and the United States narrows than expected or the RMB exchange rate fluctuates greatly, it may restrict China's policy space for steady growth.
Yang Jianhua, deputy general manager and investment director of Great Wall Fund, believes that unless the Fed is more hawkish, the market has largely reflected the expectation of raising interest rates. Once the rate increase is lower than expected, the market risk appetite may rise. The recent adjustment range of A-share market is large, and the trend of continuous adjustment cannot be ruled out in the short term. However, from the perspective of lengthening the cycle, the valuation has been quite attractive.
"Under this liquidity risk, it may be difficult for the short-term market to place high hopes. We need to wait for the easing of the policy level and the cooperation of market funds, so that the whole disk can stabilize." Hu Po believes that after this round of rapid adjustment of a shares, although there may still be some room for correction in the short term, the investment value of the overall market has become more and more prominent, so we need to pay close attention to new changes at the policy and capital levels.
For the future, Guohai Franklin fund believes that the rise of inflation can not prevent China's "wide credit + wide currency" combination, which points to the shock of the equity market and the oxtail of the bond market, rather than the bear market. However, the rise of commodity prices may affect the effect of "maintaining growth" to a certain extent and increase the difficulty of economic recovery. On the whole, under the background of maintaining growth, the probability of the index moving towards a bear market is very low. After the risk is released, keep cautious and optimistic about the later trend of the market.
Yang Ziyi, research director of Zhongrui Heyin, told reporters that under the rapid and extreme decline in the short term, the market sentiment needs to be sorted and repaired in the short term, but it also further highlights the cost performance of many high-quality targets. "At present, from the perspective of fundamentals, the bottom of some industries has been basically proved. Combined with the release of short-term risks in the future, we can gradually increase positions in advantageous industries and companies and grasp the investment opportunities brought by the short-term unexpected decline".
which directions deserve more attention
Huatai Bairui Fund believes that in the short term, it needs to wait for the easing of overseas high inflation, and the market is waiting for more policies to clarify the direction. Recently, the bulk commodity sector has performed strongly, and the price rise of related energy has a conductive effect on aluminum, chemical industry, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) etc. In the environment of stable growth in the early stage, the market pays more attention to the infrastructure chain. There is still potential policy space in the real estate and related industrial chain. The process of "climbing over the ridge" of China's economy needs timely policy force. In the medium term, industrial transformation is still inseparable from the participation of advanced manufacturing industry. Specifically, it focuses on the sectors represented by smart cars and new household appliances, with both consumption boosting and high-end manufacturing.
As the policy window approaches in March, pay attention to the industries with policy guidance and excellent medium and long-term pattern, and strive to lay out the direction of prosperity and high-quality companies.
China Merchants Fund said that there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the short-term adjustment of the market. In the medium and long term, both steady growth and molecular end (enterprise profitability) will accelerate, the positive factors will be revised, and the risk appetite is expected to rise slowly from the low level. With regard to the allocation direction, the A-share market will work along the undervalued value in the future, strive to grasp the infrastructure and consumption, and continue to maintain the allocation judgment of value first and growth later.
In terms of investment direction, Baijia fund is optimistic about technology and consumption, and does a good job in two deep excavation stages to grasp the opportunity to improve the valuation of value stocks. The scientific and technological direction includes: scientific and technological innovation enterprises with high scenery, and the consumption direction includes: Food and beverage, catering, tourism, medical services, etc. the boom this year is expected to rise month on month. Two deep excavations include: one is "specialization and innovation", which subdivides the leading small "giant". Second, companies with good or better than expected quarterly reports in 2022. Opportunities to improve the valuation of value stocks include revaluation of the value of industries such as finance and construction.
Yao Zhipeng, director of harvest growth style investment, believes that the whole market is currently in a weak operation state, and the market is in a game environment of capital outflow reduction in the short term. To reverse the current trend requires more patience and time, as well as more verification and confirmation of fundamental data. In the medium and long term, we are still witnessing the rapid completion of the penetration of emerging industries such as new energy vehicles. We also see that Chinese enterprises continue to gain a greater share in the global division of labor, and we are full of confidence in the medium and long-term development trend and market performance.
In terms of industry allocation, China Southern Fund said that in the short term, it can focus on upstream resource products that may be disturbed by the global supply chain, such as fossil energy, energy metals and industrial metals. With the development of the stable growth policy after the two sessions and the fiscal expenditure moving forward in the first and second quarters, the pull of real estate infrastructure investment will bring growth opportunities to the financial and construction industries. According to the tone of the industrial trend in the government work report, we can pay attention to the investment opportunities in digital economy, high-end equipment, raw materials, new energy storage, photovoltaic, wind power and other sectors.
