This morning (March 9), the sectors related to the new energy concept broke out collectively. The green power, pumped storage, photovoltaic, wind power and energy storage sectors all opened higher, and then fell back. As of the midday closing, the green power sector continued to lead the gains. In terms of individual stocks, Shenyang Jinshan Energy Co.Ltd(600396) , Yunnan Energy Investment Co.Ltd(002053) , Ningbo Shimao Energy Co.Ltd(605028) limit, Shanghai Nenghui Technology Co.Ltd(301046) exceeded 14.%, Spic Dongfang Energy Corporation(000958) rose by more than 5%, Shanghai Electric Power Co.Ltd(600021) , Jilin Electric Power Co.Ltd(000875) , Longyuan Power rose by more than 4%.
Note: performance of green power sector today (closing at noon on March 9)
dual carbon concept continues to heat up, and energy substitution becomes the key point
As a hot topic of the two sessions this year, the topic of “double carbon” continues to be active. Li Daokui, member of the National Committee of the Chinese people’s Political Consultative Conference and President of the China Institute of economic thought and practice of Tsinghua University, proposed the proposal of the two sessions in 2022 to promote the establishment of a unified national carbon emission market. Zhang Jianhua, director of the national energy administration, also said during the national two sessions that this year’s energy work should adhere to seeking progress in stability, establish first and then break down, continue to expand the supply of clean energy, strengthen the optimal combination of traditional energy and new energy, and speed up the construction of a new energy supply and consumption system. In addition, the recently released government work report also proposed to orderly promote carbon peaking and carbon neutralization.
Capital Securities pointed out that under the background of steady growth, the stable supply of coal, electricity and other energy will be the basis for ensuring security; Investment in “green economy” fields such as environmental governance and renewable energy will be the key direction. At the same time, the long-term goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization has not changed. The transformation of clean energy will be the only way to achieve the goal of “double carbon”. The construction and consumption of clean energy will be the focus of long-term development in the future. Maintain the investment rating of “optimistic” in the industry, continue to be optimistic about the three main investment lines of large hydropower, scenery operators and clean energy transformation, and it is recommended to pay attention to power operators with good cash flow.
In addition to benefiting from the continuous positive policies, the recent high oil prices have also catalyzed the benefits of new energy related industries. Affected by the geopolitical situation, Russia’s crude oil supply is expected to be interrupted, while the actual production increase from OPEC is less than expected, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the crude oil industry is expected to be strengthened. As of around 11:00 on March 9, the futures prices of NYMEX crude oil and Brent crude oil had stood at $125 / barrel and $130 / barrel respectively. Crude oil prices remain high, and the new energy industry as an alternative to fossil energy has also ushered in new opportunities for development.
Note: recent price trend of Brent crude oil (as of 11:00 on March 9)
crude oil soared and stirred the market, which sectors are expected to strengthen
As an important energy and chemical raw material, the soaring oil price not only affects the new energy industry, but also continues to affect the chemical industry chain. Under the pressure of tight world oil and gas supply and high price, coal chemical industry with obvious cost advantage has become an important choice to replace oil supply. Ping An Securities pointed out that under the high international oil price, the profitability of coal to fuel has improved significantly, which will usher in development opportunities. Coal to oil and coal quality utilization projects are expected to gradually move from planning to implementation, and equipment suppliers and engineering companies upstream of coal chemical industry may benefit. Gasifier, hydrogenation reactor and air separation unit are important equipment of coal to oil project.
Looking back on history, before the current round of international oil prices broke 100, it also experienced a period of high oil prices in 2008 and 2011. According to Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) statistics, the trend of China’s commodity market in 2008 is synchronized with oil prices. The price of metals and agricultural products is the leading oil price, the stock market is in the fall stage after the bubble market, and market risk preferences continue to descend. The financial sector and the industries that benefit from the rising prices of coal, agriculture, forestry, livestock and fishery are relatively down. In 2011, the stock market rose first and then fell under the background of restlessness in spring. Most of the structural opportunities are in the financial and cyclical sectors. The performance of the real estate chain with high industrial prosperity and the upstream cyclical industries benefiting from price rise factors are dominant.
Note: historical price trend of NYMEX crude oil
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) pointed out that the industries with relatively good market performance after the crude oil price broke 100% are mainly divided into three categories: first, the varieties benefiting from the price rise are mainly concentrated in middle and upper reaches of energy materials and agricultural materials . Second, high prosperity industries with strong industrial cycle catalysis. For example, in 2011, under the catalysis of large-scale affordable housing construction, real estate chain had significant comparative advantages . Third, industries with low correlation between their own industrial chain and crude oil price, such as financial, medical and other service industries . Generally speaking, focus on the segments of new energy with high industrial prosperity and energy substitution attribute, such as photovoltaic, green power and other , as well as medical services energy materials benefiting from price rise catalysis, such as coal, oil Nonferrous metals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery .
